Attachments
SUMMARY
(a) Introduction
South Sudan’s economy, which is heavily dependent on oil production, has been severely disrupted by the conflict in Sudan along with unrest in the Red Sea region. These disruptions have led to a continued deterioration of macroeconomic conditions, marked by a rapid depreciation of the local currency and increased foreign exchange volatility. In addition to sharp increases in food prices, economic hardship for the local population is further exacerbated by the government’s failure to pay civil servants, along with reduced humanitarian funding. The immediate impact of this worsening macroeconomic situation is expected to be severe in urban areas, where households are highly dependent on markets for food and essential needs.
In light of South Sudan’s worsening macroeconomic situation, this assessment sought to explore i) how economic shocks have influenced income and expenditure patterns at the household level; ii) how households are coping with economic hardships, and iii) how the economic situation has influenced households’ ability to meet their essential needs, along with potential gaps in assistance delivery.
Primary data collection followed a mixed method approach, consisting of a qualitative and quantitative component. Data was collected in July 2024, in four purposively selected locations due to the high level of household dependency on markets for food and other essential needs: Juba, Akobo, Malakal and Kapoeta. A total of ten Focus Group Discussions (FGDs) were conducted with community members, involving 78 participants. Additionally, 436 Household Interviews (HHIs) were conducted, equally distributed across the four locations. The data were analyzed using an exploratory sequential design. Qualitative data were analyzed through thematic analysis using a Data Saturation and Analysis Grid (DSAG), whereas quantitative data were analyzed using R software.
(b) Key Findings
(i) Our findings reveal significant changes in households' income and expenditure patterns due to economic shocks, with notable impacts on mental health and wellbeing.
Households across Juba, Akobo, Malakal, and Kapoeta rely on multiple income sources. In Juba, Kapoeta and Malakal, the large majority of households reported relying on self-employment considerably exceeding other income streams. In Akobo, households primarily reported relying on NGO or charity assistance, as well as on agriculture, livestock and herding, and remittances.
Our findings show that economic shocks have reduced income opportunities for households. Participants in all four locations often cited delayed salaries for those on the government payroll, as well as challenges to make a profit for those owning their own business. In Akobo, concerns were raised about insecurity preventing certain livelihood opportunities, as well as funding cuts at NGOs resulting in less jobs available.
Quantitative findings show that temporary losses of income affected over half of the population in Malakal (63%) and Juba (55%). In these two locations, a considerable proportion of the population was also affected by permanent losses of income due to economic shocks. Indeed, our findings suggest economic challenges have contributed to unemployment – with a majority of households in Malakal (92%) and Juba (75%) reporting that the number of adults unemployed and seeking for work had increased due to recent economic challenges. While less distinct in Akobo and Kapoeta, more than half of the households (69% and 58%, respectively) also noted an increase in unemployment in the household due to recent economic shocks. Across all four locations, over two thirds of the population perceived an increased competition for jobs/lack of available jobs as barrier to employment. A lack of family/personal connections was also cited to hinder employment, particularly in Juba (74%) and Malakal (69%). In addition to temporary and permanent losses of income, our quantitative findings show that economic shocks have also led to depletion of household savings, as well as increases in household debts – particularly in Malakal. Here, a striking 94% of households reported their savings to have been depleted due to the economic situation, and 83% of households reported increases in their debts.
Food expenses are the most significant household cost, reported by over 97% of households in all locations, and have increased recently – aligning to trends observed in REACH’s latest JMMI analyses. Higher food prices were attributed to increased transportation costs and checkpoint fees. Declines in product quality and variety have been observed, especially in Juba and Malakal, and reduced market visits are common due to transportation costs and security concerns. Despite these challenges, households continue to rely on markets for food, with a heightened reliance on markets for food reported by over 89% of households in all locations.
The worsening economic conditions have also affected mental health, with increased reports of depression and anxiety. Concerns about the economic situation, coupled with worsening security, have led to higher levels of mental health issues. Many households reported feelings of hopelessness and persistent worry about their financial instability and lack of livelihood.
(ii) Severe levels of coping are observed across the four locations, with households using a variety of different coping strategies.
Community members employed various coping strategies in response to economic stress, with many being food-related, such as relying on less-preferred foods, reducing the number or size of meals, and prioritizing food for children. Food-related coping strategies were common across all locations, with more than two thirds of households in all locations reporting having used these strategies at least once in the last 7 days. Consequently, reduced Coping Strategies Index (rCSI) scores were observed to be high – ranging from 11.2 in Kapoeta to 21.1 in Malakal.
Beyond food, participants often reported selling household assets and sending children to work, in order to cope with recent economic challenges. Relocating family members, reduced participation in social events, moving children to cheaper schools, and delayed medical treatment were all reported as measures to save costs as well.
The severity of these strategies was significant, particularly in Juba and Malakal, where crisis and emergency-level strategies were very common, placing over 80% of households in these two highest coping behavior categories. Akobo and Kapoeta also saw a notable use of crisis and emergency coping mechanisms, with over half of households falling in the highest two categories.
There is significant overlap between the coping strategies currently employed by households to manage economic challenges and those anticipated if the situation worsens. This indicates that households have nearly or fully exhausted their resources, pushing them toward severe food insecurity with few coping options left. The qualitative data revealed that food-related strategies, such as rationing, are already so ingrained in daily life that they are no longer viewed as additional measures but rather as the norm. This normalization signals a shift where severe coping strategies have become permanent livelihood adaptations, raising concerns about long-term chronic food insecurity and the overall well-being of households.
Income-generating strategies, including theft, crime, and selling livestock, were cited more frequently as potential future responses, highlighting fears that security issues could worsen. Extreme migrationrelated strategies, such as moving to refugee camps abroad, were also mentioned as likely future actions.
The future coping strategies discussed ranged from short-term measures, like selling household assets, to longer-term actions, such as relocating family members. This variation suggests that some households have already exhausted short-term strategies and may soon resort to more severe measures, while others may only begin to adopt short-term strategies if the economic situation continues to deteriorate. Tailored support interventions are crucial, as they must address both immediate needs and long-term resilience.
(iii) The current livelihood situation is dire – with clear signs of hunger, considerable unmet needs and gaps in assistance.
Despite the extent to which a wide variety of coping strategies was applied by households in all four locations, the large majority of households are not able to meet all their basic needs as they define and prioritize them. Even more, 63% of households in Juba are able to meet less than half to none of their needs. Households most often reported not being able to meet their food, shelter, healthcare, and education needs. Basic food needs were particularly prominent in Kapoeta and Akobo, though signs of hunger were present everywhere. The majority of households registered a Household Hunger Scale (HHS) score indicative of moderate hunger, particularly in Malakal. Moreover, coping strategies related to food consumption were commonly applied in all four locations, as was reflected in substantial rCSI scores. Taken together, these findings tentatively suggest that over 4 in 5 households in all four locations may be experiencing substantial levels of food insecurity classified as IPC Phase 2 or above (Stress or worse). Our quantitative findings also suggest that the food insecurity situation is particularly dire in Malakal, where over 3 in 5 households are potentially classified as IPC Phase 3 (Crisis). While indicative, our findings clearly show the food insecurity situation is worrying in all four locations, and particularly so in Malakal.
In order to address the challenges in meeting their essential needs, households generally perceived an increased need for humanitarian assistance over the last 6 months. Reasons for an increased need for assistance aligned to the ways that economic shocks have influenced households' income and expenditure patterns, i.e. increased expenses along with decreased income, assets and savings. Even more, over 89% of households in all locations cited their assistance needs to have increased due to higher food expenses.
Despite the clear need for assistance, households reported a variety of barriers to hinder aid access in their community. Many reported delays, reduced aid programs, and lower aid quality, especially in Malakal and Akobo, where participants perceived funding cuts to have worsened the situation. In Malakal, not understanding the application procedures was also commonly cited as a barrier to aid access, at 51%.
Taking these perceived unmet needs and challenges in aid access together, communities expressed a broad spectrum of needs they perceived needing assistance on in the future. In line with our findings, food assistance was most commonly cited in Akobo, Kapoeta and Malakal – with 81% of households in Kapoeta, to a striking 100% of households in Malakal being in need of food assistance. Again, healthcare and education services were also commonly cited, particularly in Juba (80% for healthcare and 67% for education). A variety of other assistance needs were reported as well, including shelter, livelihood support, sanitation services, essential household and personal items, drinking water and nutrition. The extent to which each of these needs was reported varied across the locations, with many being reported by over a fifth of households. This further emphasizes the need for comprehensive, context-specific aid strategies to address the diverse challenges in each region.
(iv) Despite households’ extensive use of a variety of coping mechanisms to deal with economic shocks-induced changes in their income and expenditure patterns, there are considerable gaps in households’ ability to meet their essential needs
In summary, this assessment offers a nuanced understanding of how recent economic shocks have reshaped household livelihoods across Juba, Akobo, Malakal, and Kapoeta. The findings reveal significant shifts in income and expenditure patterns, with households increasingly relying on unstable and diverse income sources amidst reduced economic opportunities. This economic strain has not only heightened challenges to meet households’ food and other essential needs, reflected in signs of hunger and substantial food insecurity, but has also had a detrimental impact on mental health and well-being, manifesting in increased levels of depression, trauma, and family strain. Coping strategies employed by households reflect this desperation, with food-related measures becoming normalized and more extreme strategies like theft and migration gaining prominence as future possibilities. These findings highlight the need for tailored support that addresses both immediate needs and long-term resilience, considering the varied stages of coping within communities and prominent levels of food insecurity. The extensive use of severe coping mechanisms and the broad social implications, such as potential community fragmentation, underscore the critical need for a comprehensive and adaptive humanitarian response. Moving forward, addressing these findings involves filling the information gaps identified, such as the long-term impacts of coping strategies and the effectiveness of current aid interventions.