South Sudan: Acute Food Insecurity and Malnutrition Situation January 2019 and Projections for February - April 2019 and May - July 2019
Food security situation continues to deteriorate due to conflict-driven displacement, low crop production, economic crisis, climatic shocks and humanitarian access challenges
In the current analysis period of January 2019, 6.17 million people (54% of the population) are estimated to have faced Crisis (IPC Phase 3) acute food insecurity or worse, out of which 1.36 million people faced Emergency (IPC Phase 4) acute food insecurity and 30,000 faced Catastrophe (IPC Phase 5) . The people in Catastrophe (IPC Phase 5) in January 2019 are found in four counties, namely: Canal/Pigi and Pibor (former Jonglei); Panyikang (former Upper Nile); and Cueibet (former Lakes). Large-scale humanitarian assistance is urgently needed to save lives and protect livelihoods in these counties. Compared with the same time last year, the January 2019 levels of food insecurity reflect a 13% increase in the population facing Crisis (IPC Phase 3) acute food insecurity or worse in the post-harvest season.
In the projection period of February to April 2019, and in the presence of Humanitarian Food Assistance (HFA) , a total of 6.45 million people (57% of the population) will face Crisis (IPC Phase 3) acute food insecurity or worse, with an estimated 45,000 people in Catastrophe (IPC Phase 5). In the projection period of May to July 2019, and in the presence of Humanitarian Food Assistance, a total 6.87 million people (60% of the population) will face Crisis (IPC Phase 3) acute food insecurity or worse, with an estimated 50,000 people in Catastrophe (IPC Phase 5).
In January 2019, 16 former counties across the country were classified in Emergency (IPC Phase 4) acute food insecurity, with Greater Upper Nile region having seven (Panyijiar, Koch and Guit of former Unity State; Fashoda and Panyikang of former Upper Nile State; Canal/Pigi and Pibor of former Jonglei State); Greater Bahr el Ghazal region having six (Cueibet, Yirol West, Yirol East and Awerial of former Lakes State; Aweil East of former Northern Bahr el Ghazal State; and Wau of former Western Bahr el Ghazal); and Greater Equatoria region having three (Budi, Kapoeta East and Kapoeta North of former Eastern Equatoria State). Of the remaining counties, 59 are in Crisis (IPC Phase 3), out of which 10 counties are classified in IPC Phase 3! (Crisis – would likely have been at least one phase worse without the effects of Humanitarian Food Assistance (HFA)). Ibba and Tambura, in former Western Equatoria State, and Renk of former Upper Nile State, are facing Stressed (IPC Phase 2) acute food insecurity. Areas of concern from previous analyses, including Leer, Mayendit and Greater Baggari sub-area of Wau County are classified in Crisis (IPC Phase 3!) because of large-scale humanitarian food assistance.
The high levels of acute food insecurity continue to be driven by the cumulative effects of the national and localized conflicts, heavy reliance on unpredictable and poor rainfall performances, associated population displacements and prolonged years of asset depletion. These contributed to insufficient crop production, with only 52% of the 2019 national cereal needs being met by harvests. Additionally, conflict has disrupted livelihoods and impacted on households’ access to other food sources, such as wild foods, fish, and livestock products. Furthermore, the on-going economic crisis has significantly reduced households’ purchasing power and vulnerable populations who are reliant on market purchases of highly priced foods. Other significant drivers include the prolonged dry spells at critical stages of crop growth, flooding, and crop pests and diseases.
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