South Sudan

National Multi Hazard Early Warning Bulletin Issue 3, February - May 2018


Key Messages

  • In the period May to July 2018, an estimated 7.1 million (63% of the population would face crisis (IPC Phase 3) or worse acute food insecurity conditions, of which 155,000 are estimated to be in Catastrophe (IPC Phase 5) in the protracted absence of humanitarian assistance.
  • The rainfall forecast for March, April and May (MAM) 2018 indicates that parts of Greater Equatoria, Jonglei and Upper Nile are likely to experience above normal rainfall and there are therefore high chances of flooding and flash flooding while Greater Kapoeta is likely to experience dry spell.
  • Normal to above normal rainfall forecast in Southern part of the country is likely to provide conducive breeding environment for fall army worm (FAW) that could impact negatively the agricultural season of June, July, August and September (JJAS).
  • Hyper-inflation and high cost of living continue to be major challenge with overall inflation at 125% per cent and food inflation at 112 per cent per annum as at January 2018.
  • According to latest report from OCHA, 1.9 million people are internally displaced in South Sudan, while 2.4 million live as refugees in foreign countries; this represents an increase of 400,000 refugees and reduction of 100,000 IDPs since this bulletin issue of May-July 2017.
  • Constrained humanitarian access poses challenges to humanitarian assistance, thus affecting some of the most vulnerable populations.