South Sudan

Movement patterns and humanitarian needs in South Sudan: Scenarios, January - June 2021

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Analysis
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Possible developments of movement and settlement patterns and humanitarian needs in the next six months after the redesignation of the Protection of Civilians sites.

These scenarios describe situations that could occur in the coming six months and are designed to highlight the possible impacts and humanitarian consequences associated with each scenario.

  • Scenario 1 Delayed, gradual decrease in security; increased displacement; decreasing access

  • Scenario 2 Rapid decrease in security; new displacement; decreased access

  • Scenario 3 Improved security, increased involuntary movement from sites, reduced access

  • Scenario 4 Gradually improving security; increased voluntary movements from sites; increased access

These scenarios aim to support strategic planning, create awareness, and promote preparedness activities for policymakers and other actors working in South Sudan, in partnership with DRC and NRC.