South Sudan

Jonglei Climate Shocks and Displacement Trend Analysis, August 2019-December 2020, Akobo, Ayod, Duk, Twic East, and Bor South counties

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Introduction

The October 2020 to July 2021 Integrated Food Security Phase Classification (IPC) analysis results showed that Akobo, Ayod, Duk, Twic East, and Bor South counties in Jonglei state faced Phase 4 Emergency levels of food insecurity as of October, with projections that all counties would continue to experience Phase 4 Emergency levels into July 2021. All counties were endorsed by the South Sudan Humanitarian Country Team as priority counties with some of the most severe food insecurity among the counties classified as Phase 4 country-wide, while Akobo county in particular was assessed as containing pockets with Phase 5 Catastrophe levels of food insecurity between April to July. This crisis was in large part driven by high levels of flooding in both 2019 and 2020, which led to mass displacement in most of the abovelisted counties. Taking advantage of REACH’s monthly quantitative data collection in these five counties, this report examines REACH Area-of-Knowledge (AoK) data focused on flooding impacts on shelter and displacement, as well as other co-occurring displacement drivers, dating back to August 2019. Over-time analysis is used to better quantify shifting displacement trends and accumulation of shocks since the multi-year sequence of severe flooding began. This is supplemented by qualitative information from focus group discussions conducted in Jonglei in September and October 2020.

Broadly, from August 2019 to December 2020, the five counties of analysis showed a consistent pattern in which flooding-driven displacement had increased in 2020 compared to 2019, as the accumulated impacts of the 2019 flooding, restriction of livelihoods and insecurity in the 2020 lean season eroded the coping capacity in all counties, before exceptionally severe flooding exceeding that of 2019 arrived in the second half of the year and triggered mass displacement.3 Reportedly this displacement, which included long-distance movement from Greater Bor (Duk, Twic East, and Bor South counties in Jonglei) into Bor town, Mangalla (Central Equatoria), and Mingkaman (Lakes), has furthered the cycle of livelihood disruption and likely contributed to emergency levels of food insecurity assessed by the October 2020 IPC.