East Africa Key Message Update, September 2017
Extreme levels of food insecurity persist across South Sudan as conflict continues to limit access to typical food sources and, in some areas, the delivery of humanitarian assistance. Emergency (IPC Phase 4) or Crisis (IPC Phase 3) outcomes exist in all states, despite the start of the harvest. Some households on isolated islands along the White Nile in Leer of Unity and Ayod of Jonglei could be in Catastrophe (IPC Phase 5) in the event they are unable to move in search of assistance.
Large areas of Somali Region in Ethiopia are expected to remain in Emergency (IPC Phase 4) or Crisis (IPC Phase 3) through January 2018, following severe drought over the past two seasons. An immediate and sustained resumption of assistance is needed to prevent households from facing more extreme outcomes. As food consumption gaps widen, levels of acute malnutrition and mortality may rise further. Areas of greatest concern include Dollo, Korahe, Degahabour, and Jarar zones.
An estimated 25 percent of Somalia’s population is to be in Crisis (IPC Phase 3) or Emergency (IPC Phase 4) through December. A risk of Famine continues through the end of the year in the worst affected areas in a worst-case scenario in which there is a significant interruption to current food assistance programs and higher prices further decrease household food access. Areas of greatest concern include the northeast and some IDP populations.
Although substantial humanitarian assistance continues to moderate food insecurity in Yemen, large populations remain in Crisis (IPC Phase 3) or Emergency (IPC Phase 4) acute food insecurity. A major cholera outbreak also continues in Yemen, with more than 540, suspected cases identified and more than 2,000 deaths reported between late April and late August 2017. Populations facing both food consumption gaps and cholera are at the highest risk of increased mortality.
Populations displaced by conflict in Jebel Marra and SPLM-N-controlled areas of South Kordofan in Sudan are likely to remain in Emergency (IPC Phase 4) through September. Newly displaced IDPs in Darfur, South Kordofan, Blue Nile, and refugees from South Sudan have limited access to land for cultivation and to seasonal agricultural labor opportunities. Seasonal rainfall has been average to above-average in most areas of the country, although remote sensing products suggest vegetation conditions remain below average in many areas.