East Africa Food Security Outlook - May to September 2014
Conflict in South Sudan and Sudan led Emergency (IPC Phase 4)
As of May 2014, nearly 17 million people are in Stressed, Crisis, and Emergency (IPC Phases 2, 3, and 4) in East Africa. Populations in the higher phases of acute food insecurity can be found in South Sudan, Sudan, eastern Ethiopia, Djibouti, southern Somalia, and northern Kenya.
Following continued conflict in South Sudan since mid-December, more than three million people are currently in need of urgent humanitarian response to address acute food insecurity of Crisis (IPC Phase 3) and higher. Further deterioration is likely with continued conflict. Without urgent action, Famine (IPC Phase 5) is possible in localized (sub‐county) areas of Jonglei and Unity States between May and August.
Record-high staple food prices are expected across Sudan through August due to the below average 2013/2014 harvest, high production costs, increased marketing costs due to the partial removal of fuel price subsidies in late 2013. High prices will limit food access for the poor in many areas as market purchases tend to peak during the May to September lean season.
Conflict continues to disrupt markets in Unity, Upper Nile, and Jonglei States in South Sudan. No staples are available in some of the markets, and prices are very high in the markets where staples are still available. Possibility of imports into these areas from neighboring countries is very limited.
Emergency (IPC Phase 4) with high levels of acute malnutrition will persist among displaced households in Sudan People’s Liberation Movement-North- (SPLM-N) controlled areas of South Kordofan State in Sudan between July and September as the lean season peaks and staple prices increase further.
Food security in pockets of Mandera and Wajir Counties in northeastern Kenya is expected to deteriorate to Crisis (IPC Phase 3) with conflict having reduced market access and access to humanitarian assistance. Also, in some conflict-affected areas in riverine areas of Lower and Middle Shabelle in Somalia are expected to move into Crisis (IPC Phase 3) as conflict has reduced market access, displaced populations, and led to unusually low planted area.