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South Sudan + 8 more

East Africa Early Warning Report January - February 2016

Attachments

METHODOLOGY

Information for this Early Warning/Early Action document is gathered from varying sources through desk top assessments, personal interviews and anecdotal understanding of humanitarian contexts throughout the region. This document is produced monthly and has been developed to provide a snap shot of important information for World Vision managers to promote and track trends relevant to their work.

The main goal of this document is to facilitate World Vision manager’s decision making on next steps towards promoting a response, tracking a response or closing a response. All references for information can be supplied upon request, but have not been included here due to space constraints. In general, information is gleaned from World Vision data, UNHCR, IOM, WFP, UNOCHA, UNICEF and other partners existing reports as and when appropriate.

INSTABILITY - WORSENING

Malnutrition levels have risen with current food insecurity and deterioration in health services; this trend is projected to continue as the causes are mainly structural.

The education system will witness a deterioration in terms of performance, facilities and attendance as donors close taps on support to social programs. The ongoing food insecurity and political tensions in the country will continue to contribution to poor enrolment, absenteeism and poor performance over the coming months.

Like other sectors, health will be negatively affected by the country economy deterioration as results of donor disengagement to support the country. Some health programs may be suspended, hence endangering lives. El Nino effects are expected to be felt in season B (February-June) which may bring about disease outbreak such cholera and waterborne diseases.

Negative coping mechanisms occasioned by political and economic hardships are likely to lead to an errosion in the productive assets; farming inputs such as seeds and tools likely to be limited in quality and quantity over the next planting season; poor crop situation likely to result in the coming months.

No influx of refugees into Burundi reported. The reintegration of Burundian returnees is ongoing with tensions reported between them and host community. Over 217,000 Burundians are seeking refuge in the neighboring countries of Tanzania, Uganda, Rwanda and DRC.

Internally displaced estimated at about 15,000; this number is however difficult to verify. Internal displacement trends likely to be affected by the outcome of the ongoing peace talks.

The crisis has subsided with the commencement of AU led dialogue in Uganda and Tanzania. However, disagreements over opposition representation and agenda will continue to cause tensions within Burundi over the coming months. The United Nations Security Council, the AU and EAC have ramped up efforts to prevent the further deterioration of the situation. Increased international sanctions against Burundi, including the reduction of aid (which accounts for up to 80% of social services budgets) are hurting the civilian population the most.

The Feb-April rain season period is characterized by heavy rains which are expected to be harsh this time due to El Nino effect. Flooding and landslides which have been reported in the Imbo and Mirwa communes are expected to be more severe in the coming months.