Climate Prediction Center’s Africa Hazards Outlook For USAID / FEWS-NET September 6 – September 12, 2012

1) Heavy rains have resulted in fatalities and massive destruction in South Darfur, the northern Bahr el Ghazal, Warrap, and Jonglei states of South Sudan. Flooding potential remains as above-average rains are forecast during the next week.

2) Since July, heavy rains causing flooding and inundation along the Niger and Benue Rivers have led to the displacement of thousands of people and many fatalities in eastern Nigeria. Enhanced rainfall forecast could exacerbate the ground conditions.

3) Heavy rains over the Ethiopia highlands have caused the Atbra River to outburst, resulting in flooding that has affected thousands in the Nile River. The continued, heavy rains have also already impacted the Kassala and Gadaref states of Sudan. Ground conditions may worsen as heavy rains are expected to continue over western Ethiopia during the next week.

4) Both anomalous seasonal rainfall and northward position of the Inter-Tropical front has favored breeding conditions for desert locusts over the southern Mauritania-western Mali border, central Niger-eastern Mali, Chad, and east-central Sudan. The continuation of above-average rainfall during September could lead to locust outbreak across many regions.