Climate Prediction Center’s Africa Hazards Outlook For USAID / FEWS-NET September 6 – September 12, 2012

1) Heavy rains have resulted in fatalities and massive destruction in South Darfur, the northern Bahr el Ghazal, Warrap, and Jonglei states of South Sudan. Flooding potential remains as heavy rains are forecast during the next week.

2) Heavy downpours left one dead in the Gambia during the past week. Heavy rains have persisted, exacerbating Cholera outbreak across Sierra Leone and Guinea. Concerns for flooding and Cholera spreading remain as heavy rains are again forecasted.

3) Heavy rains over the Ethiopia highlands have caused the Atbra River to outburst, resulting in flooding that has affected thousands in the Nile River. The continued, heavy rains have also already impacted the Kassala and Gadaref states of Sudan. Ground conditions may worsen as heavy rains are expected to continue over western Ethiopia during the next week.

4) The anomalous northward position of the Inter-Tropical front has favored breeding conditions for desert locusts over the southern Mauritania-western Mali border, central Niger-eastern Mali, Chad, and east-central Sudan. The continuation of above-average rainfall during September could lead to locust outbreak across many regions.

5) Above-average rains over the past few weeks have led to the overflowing of the Niger River, resulting in deaths and impacting a large number of residents near Niamey of Niger. Additional rains could exacerbate the ground conditions.

Note: Map in 2 pages