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South Sudan + 1 more

ACAPS Thematic Report - South Sudan Key crises to watch (19 August 2024)

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OVERVIEW

South Sudan grapples with a multifaceted array of challenges, ranging from political instability and economic fragility to the impacts of climate change and conflicts. Intercommunal conflicts, rooted in tribal, political allegiances and pastoralist disputes, persist across the nation, leading to casualties and displacement. According to UNMISS, the incidence of intercommunal violence increased by 24% between January–March 2024 compared to the same period in 2023 (AJ 19/03/2024; OHCHR/UNMISS 17/07/2024).

The latest IPC analysis indicates that many areas will likely experience acute food insecurity at Crisis (IPC Phase 3) or worse levels during the peak of the lean season from April–July 2024, affecting more than seven million people. Of these, 2.3 million and 79,000 people – including returnees from Sudan – respectively face Emergency (IPC Phase 4) and Catastrophe (IPC Phase 5) food insecurity levels. This is an increase from the previous period’s projection (December 2023 to March 2024) of 5.7 million, necessitating urgent humanitarian food assistance. The rise in food insecurity stems from climate-related shocks, such as flooding and dry spells; the economic crisis marked by currency depreciation and high food prices; internal conflict and insecurity; low agricultural production; a reduction in humanitarian assistance; and the effects of the continued conflict in Sudan (IPC 06/11/2023 and 03/11/2022; FEWS NET 05/04/2024).

As a result of the conflict in neighbouring Sudan, South Sudan has experienced a steady influx of refugees and returnees since April 2023. By June 2024, South Sudan was hosting more than 720,000 individuals who had crossed over from Sudan, with approximately 560,000 being South Sudanese (OCHA 05/07/2024). A variety of shocks have displaced approximately two million IDPs in need of humanitarian assistance to South Sudan (UNHCR accessed 08/08/2024).

Economic challenges loom large in South Sudan, as inflation has surged in 2024, reaching approximately 54%, eroding purchasing power, and increasing the cost of living for the population (Xinhua 25/03/2024; IMF accessed 22/07/2024). The South Sudanese pound has depreciated significantly against major currencies since 2023, worsening economic instability (WFP accessed 22/07/2024). Oil makes up 95% of South Sudan’s exports, and the country relies on it heavily. A lack of economic diversification poses significant obstacles to sustainable development, leaving the nation vulnerable to fluctuations in global oil prices. Unemployment remained high at 20% in 2022, and essential sectors such as agriculture and manufacturing are underdeveloped, further hindering economic growth and stability (WB accessed 19/06/2024; The EastAfrican 12/05/2024; WFP accessed 19/06/2024; WB 10/2022).