Attachments
A. Situation analysis
Description of the disaster
From 01 March to 18 March 2014 the north-eastern parts of the country experienced heavy and extended rainfall which led to extensive flooding and landslides. As a result, over 7,000 people have been affected, with 3,525 displaced. The government of South Africa confirms 32 deaths have been reported with others still missing due to flash flooding. The most affected provinces include Limpopo, Mpumalanga, North West and Gauteng.
Limpopo Province was worst affected with the municipalities of Lephalale, Mogalakwena, Modimolle, Bela-Bela, Thabazimbi, and Mookgopong in Waterberg District hardest hit. The cost of damage to infrastructure (main roads, houses, farmland and tourist centres) are estimated in millions of US dollars. Most community members have evacuated or been evacuated to evacuation centres set up by Government in community halls, crèches, schools. Emergency Response Teams from government, private sector, military, NGOs and the red cross have been working together to evacuate flood affected communities.
In Gauteng province, 113mm (4.5”) of rain fell in the first ten days of March, compared with the long term average of 101mm (4”) for the month, according to SA Weather Services. Tshwane received 190mm (7.5”) of rainfall in the same period, the most since 1997. These heavy rains were caused by the presence of an upper-air trough (extension of a low pressure) from the 1st March to 14th in the upper portions of the atmosphere and allowed for an enhanced and extended amount of tropically-sourced air mass to be drawn into the eastern and north-eastern parts of the country.
Incidents of flooding were first reported during the second week of March over the eastern parts of North West, Limpopo, Mpumalanga and Gauteng provinces as well as northern parts of KwaZulu-Natal in South Africa. Further widespread showers and rain, combined with a risk of possible localised flooding, are likely to persist over the following provinces: Gauteng, Mpumalanga, and Limpopo, the eastern parts of North-West and the Free State as well as the northern areas of KwaZulu-Natal. All roads and border crossings along the Limpopo River into Botswana, from Limpopo Province, have been closed until further notice.
On Tuesday, 11 March 2014 the upper-air trough moved into the central interior, with a surface trough deepening over the western parts. Consequently, the chance of showers and thundershowers (which were heavy in places) increased over regions such as North West, the Free State as well as parts of the Eastern Cape, thus broadening the general area over South Africa experiencing heavy rains. It should be noted that the levels of soil moisture in many places remain high and thus it would not require much further rain to cause further flooding. Therefore, communities living along the waterways or flood plains environments remain on high alert.