Somalia Seasonal Monitor: Highlights
• The current Deyr season of late 2020 was preceded by a period of record rainfall that lasted for over a year. This led to unprecedented vegetation growth but potential benefits were offset by extensive flooding and the impacts of large scale desert locust infestation.
• This period of wetter than average rainfall ended in mid-October with a shift to drier than average conditions. These have affected mostly the northern regions of Somaliland and Puntland and the southernmost regions of Gedo and Juba.
• Crop development in agricultural areas of western Somaliland takes place from July to October and hence avoided the consequences of this shift to drier conditions. However, pasture and water availability during the coming months will suffer.
• In contrast, crop and pasture development from October to December in the southern regions of Gedo and Juba is being affected by drier than average conditions that led to delays in the start of the growing season. Given that short range forecasts point to the continuation of drier than average conditions in these regions until end of November, perspectives for crop and pasture production are pessimistic.
• Southern and Central areas of Somalia in contrast have been received plentiful and intense rainfall which has led to localized flooding and flash floods. On the upside these regions are expected to enjoy good crop and pasture production. Riverine floods are unlikely given low river levels and normal conditions in SE Ethiopia.
• Some seasonal forecasts already cover the Gu season of 2021, pointing to close to average conditions but for the moment more pronounced rainfall deficits are expected along the border regions with Kenya, SE Ethiopia and in the northern provinces towards Djibouti.