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Somalia

WFP Somalia: Anticipatory Action Evidence Generation Report (March - May 2024)

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Executive Summary

Climate change is among the causative factors for food security in most countries. Somalia, among the countries experiencing extreme effects of climate change manifesting as prolonged droughts or floods, has faced acute food insecurity in the last two decades. The most recent statistics, according to IPC (2024), show that 2.9 million Somalis were in IPC Acute Food Insecurity (AFI) Phase 3 (Crisis) and 740,000 in IPC AFI Phase 4 (Emergency) between July and September 2024. With flood forecasts in the October – December rainy season (Deyr),
WFP, working collaboratively with the Somalia Disaster Management Agency (SoDMA), implemented the first round of anticipatory action (AA). After successfully implementing the October-November-December (OND) 2023 AA,
WFP drew learnings that informed the second round of anticipatory action in the March-AprilMay (MAM), i.e., the Gu rainy season. The OND and MAM Anticipatory Action Plans (AAPs) delivered three interventions: sharing early warning messages (EWMs), prepositioning boats, and cash transfers. In line with the AA plan, cash transfers were activated in two phases: the anticipatory action (AA) group received transfers before the floods, while the flood response (FR) group received them afterward.
WFP conducted an evidence-generation exercise to assess the impact on beneficiaries and identify the most effective approach to mitigating the adverse effects of flooding on vulnerable households. The MAM AAP evidencegeneration employed a quasi-experimental research design, comparing three groups of people: those who had received assistance, particularly cash transfers before the floods group (AA), those who received it after the floods occurred, the flood response group (FR), and the residents of the same localities who had not received cash transfers, control group (CG). It is important to note that sharing early warning messages and prepositioning boats was intended for everyone.
Across the indicators assessed, the AA group had better scores than the FR and CG groups, while the FR group scored better than the CG for most indicators. For instance, the group targeted with AA had a higher proportion (46%) of households with acceptable food consumption scores (FCS) than the FR group (42%) and the CG (18%). The average consumption-based coping strategies (rCSI) were lower for the AA group (13.7) than for the FR group (15.0) and CG (15.9). On the other hand, the AA group had the lowest percentage of households (22%) applying livelihood coping strategies for food security (LCS-FS), compared to the FR group (29%) and CG (27%). Regarding early warning messages channels, most people (78%) reported receiving early warning messages through phone ringback tones. Community structures such as community elders/leaders, religious leaders, community meetings, gatekeepers, friends/neighbours, and family members were mentioned by 59% of the households, while 43% noted receiving messages via radio. The study also measured climate services score (CSS) using five standardized questions on access to timely, easy-to-understand climate information tailored to household needs and usage. Results showed that the AA group had the highest proportion of households with high CSS (87%), followed by the FR group (83%) and the CG (65%). The high CSS indicated that households accessed and used timely, easy-to-understand climate information to inform their response plans. These findings show that the AA approach was more effective than flood response in mitigating the adverse impacts of flooding on vulnerable households.
The study’s additional recommendations for future AA plans include:

• Future planning for climate change interventions should recognize that these efforts are not one-time activities. With human activities contributing increasingly to climate change, extreme weather conditions are likely to persist. Learning from the current and previous projects and analyzing Somalia’s weather trends is crucial for effective mitigation planning. WFP and partners should seek support to invest in delivering anticipatory action interventions that have shown to be more effective than post-shock responses.

• Collaborate with other agencies and government structures - Partnerships with SODMA to monitor and relay trigger information activation have proven effective, highlighting the importance of continued collaboration with the SODMA, Federal, and State governments. Exploring additional partnerships and leveraging each party’s strengths is essential for enhancing future interventions.

• Conduct extensive mapping of actors in WFP project sites - WFP and partners should thoroughly assess the actors in the selected project areas. This mapping will helps identify organizations implementing similar interventions, avoid duplication, and identify opportunities for complementary assistance.

• Implement activities that enhance communal participation beyond receiving assistance to involving them in decisionmaking. The lack in sharing project information indicated that most beneficiaries were only aware that WFP would provide assistance without understanding the project details. Community engagement strategies should be reassessed and adjusted to improve participation, foster ownership, enhance decision-making, and ensure the sustainability of project benefits.

• Emphasize the intensity of disasters in early warning messages - Many people reported being unable to gauge the severity of the floods from the early warning messages. Future interventions should aim to design messages that include projected disaster intensity, where possible, to support guidance on response decision-making more effectively.

• Continue using phone ringback and radio for early warning messages (EWMs), integrating these channels with community structures. Given phone ringback’s popularity, it should remain a key EWM channel. Although community structures were the second most mentioned radio remains vital for message dissemination. EWMs should be designed to encourage recipients to share information with others in their community such as neighbours, families, and friends, ensuring the effective use of ringbacks and radios while integrating community structures to expand the reach of EWMs.

• Share early warning messages (EWMs) at least four months in advance of an anticipated disaster. AA plan designs should consider timing that aligns with community needs to enable those likely to be affected to take the appropriate mitigation actions and prepare an effective response.

• Maintain flexible anticipatory action project designs to adapt to changing climate conditions. These designs should also include adaptability that accounts for and supports different gender needs and roles, addressing gender-related challenges as they arise. For example, women often have unique needs and responsibilities during extreme weather events. Adaptive measures should include safe spaces for women in shelters and resources to support their caregiving roles during emergencies.

• Ensure safe access to AA services for women and girls by designing interventions that prioritize safety and privacy. This includes establishing gender-segregated spaces during cash distributions, providing secure and private water and sanitation facilities and involving female staff and volunteers in AA activities to create a more secure environment for women and girls.