Attachments
Key Highlights
• The humanitarian situation in Somalia is rapidly deteriorating following the failure of the 2025 Deyr rains, harsh Jilaal season, and onset of drought. Approximately 4.4 million people are currently facing Crisis or worse levels of acute food insecurity as per the 2025 Post Gu Integrated Food Security Phase Classification (IPC) analysis. New IPC Post Gu analysis results are expected by end of February 2026.
• Drought conditions have intensified across the country leading to widespread water scarcity, crop failure, livestock losses, and displacements. In many areas, community coping mechanisms are getting exhausted. Rural agricultural and pastoral communities are among the most affected, facing severe livestock losses, crop failure and water shortages.
• Somalia enters the Gu 2026 season under significant climatic stress, following a failed Deyr 2025, failed Karan in the northeastern regions, prolonged hot and dry Jilaal conditions, and an emerging but localized drought, which while less widespread is more severe in intensity than the 2022 drought in affected areas.
• The forecast slightly favors near-normal rainfall (40 %), though drier or wetter conditions (30 % each) remain possible. Parts of Somaliland and the Ethiopia–Somalia border areas have a 45% chance of above-normal rainfall, but large areas of south and central Somalia remain highly uncertain. Hot conditions are very likely to persist into March and April, increasing evapotranspiration and delaying drought recovery even where rainfall is near normal. This is evidenced by acute water shortages, livestock deaths, rising food prices, and declining river levels, particularly in Hirshabelle, Galmudug, Jubaland, South West, and Banadir regions.
• River levels along the Shabelle and Juba rivers are currently very low, with community reports confirming drying river sections in Beledweyne, Bulo Burte, Balad, and Jowhar, increasing dependence on groundwater abstraction and water trucking ahead of the Gu season.
• While above-normal Gu rainfall could ease drought conditions, especially in northern regions, meaningful recovery across most of central and southern Somalia is likely to be slow, with high risks of delayed onset, long dry spells, and uneven rainfall distribution. Gu season will be a stabilization window but not a guaranteed season, even a near-normal Gu is unlikely to deliver immediate and proportional recovery, especially for pastoral, agro-pastoral, and riverine livelihoods.