Attachments
Highlights
- Updated outlook indicates improved rainfall prospects in parts of southern, central and northern Somalia, but localized below-normal risks persist in Bari and parts of Bay and Woqooyi Galbeed, with high spatial variability
- Above-normal temperatures are forecast across most of the country; however, normal to below-normal temperatures are expected over Gebiley district and southern Hargeisa (Woqooyi Galbeed), parts of Owdweyne (Togdheer), and central highland areas of Ceerigaabo (Sanaag). While heat will intensify drought impacts nationally, these localized cooler conditions may moderate evapotranspiration and slightly ease drought stress in those highland areas
- Recent food security analyses signal a marked deterioration in household conditions during Feb Mar 2026, reflecting cumulative drought impacts, water shortages, livestock losses, and weakened coping capacity
- Even under a near-average Gu scenario (Apr–Jun), only partial improvement is anticipated, indicating that rainfall gains may not translate into significant recovery
- Gu 2026 should therefore be treated as a stabilization window—not a recovery season, requiring sustained drought response, flexible anticipatory action, and close monitoring