Attachments
1. Executive summary
The State of Somalia (SOS) report focuses on the main developments and key trends in politics, security, the economy, social services and the role of external actors in 2023.
This annual report documents key events that shaped Somalia throughout the year and provides analysis and context for policymakers, academics, and the general public to support peace and state-building.
In 2023, the National Consultative Council (NCC) reached an agreement to fundamentally reshape Somalia’s political system. The agreement proposed transitioning from a parliamentary to a presidential system and a shift from the current 4.5 clan power-sharing system to a one-person-one-vote electoral model. This would start with the local council elections in June 2024, followed by regional and federal elections. However, the decision was not without controversy. The absence of Puntland from the NCC proceedings raised questions about its legitimacy. The de facto one-year extension granted to regional leaders through the NCC’s proposed electoral roadmap also drew criticism. While endorsed by the cabinet, as of 31 December it had not been formally presented to parliament for consideration and ratification. There is no doubt this will be a key issue that will dominate politics in 2024.
The Federal Member States (FMS) all experienced internal political dynamics in 2023 that centered around election-related disputes, power sharing, and leadership conflicts. Puntland faced escalating tensions and violence over proposed electoral reforms calling for a one-person, one-vote system in the 2024 elections. Hirshabelle experienced internal disputes arising from discontented Hawadle communities regarding the state’s power-sharing arrangement. Galmudug witnessed a power struggle between president Ahmed Abdi Kaariye “QoorQoor” and vice president Ali Dahir Eid. Meanwhile, Jubbaland’s president Ahmed Madoobe encountered strong internal dissent from authorities of the Gedo region based in Garbahaarey. They objected to his appointment of a new administration in Gedo, with a new bloc of opposition groups amplifying local authorities’ objections. Southwest saw relative political stability following federal parliament speaker Sheikh Adan Madoobe’s mediated reconciliation between the opposition and the government. However, there was dissatisfaction from the opposition about the NCC’s proposed election timeline.
On the economic front, Somalia achieved notable progress, particularly in the realm of debt relief and integration with international financial institutions. A significant milestone was achieved in December 2023 with the securing of $4.5 billion in debt forgiveness from international financial institutions and creditors. Somalia’s admission to the East African Community (EAC) after months of negotiations opened up potential new avenues for regional trade and economic cooperation. The opening of Ziraat Katilim Bank, a Turkish government institution, in Mogadishu marked a return of foreign banks to Somalia after a five-decade absence.
Somalia’s humanitarian situation remained precarious in 2023. An estimated 4.3 million people continued to experience acute food insecurity, stemming from a complex interplay of persistent climate shocks and ongoing conflict. The situation was exacerbated by El Niño rains in October and November, resulting in devastating floods which displaced nearly 1.2 million people. An estimated 1.5 million children experienced acute malnutrition, according to the United Nation’s World Food Program (WFP).
Somalia’s offensive against al-Shabaab, launched in August 2022, continued throughout 2023 with mixed results. Progress slowed compared to initial momentum due to logistical issues, insufficient funds, the renewal of clan feuds, and a lack of manpower to hold onto and stabilize captured territories. As a result, al-Shabaab recaptured strategic towns such as Oswein, Ceel Dheer and Galcad. Government forces suffered significant casualties including the loss of Major Hassan Mohamed Osman (Hassan Tuure), the deputy commander of the famed Danab commandos brigade. One positive development was the lifting of the 30-year UN Security Council arms embargo on Somalia in December. This could significantly enhance the government’s military capabilities and long-term counter-insurgency efforts.
January saw developments in the planned drawdown of the African Union Transition Mission in Somalia (ATMIS), the first hand over of an ATMIS Forward Operating Base (FOB). Security responsibilities for Villa Somalia, the presidential palace, transitioned to Somali security forces in December.