Key Findings
FSNAU, FEWSNET and partner post Deyr 2011/12 seasonal assessment results indicate that Famine outcomes no longer exist in southern Somalia, yet nearly a third of the population remain in crisis, unable to fully meet essential food and non-food needs. Based on the assessment findings, Mogadishu IDPs, Afgoye IDPs, and agropastoral households in Middle Shabelle (populations formerly classified as IPC Phase 5 – Famine) have now improved to Emergencylevel food insecurity (IPC Phase 4). This is the result of substantial humanitarian assistance provided and the Deyr harvest, which is substantially higher than average. Both factors have mitigated the extreme food deficits and reduced mortality levels. Nonetheless, as of 3 rd of February, 2.34 million people remained in crisis, with 73 percent (1.7 million) residing in the southern regions. In the most-likely scenario, the number of population in crisis is projected to increase up to 2.51 million people in February-June 2012. The increase is anticipated in agropastoral areas of Lower Shabelle and Bay regions where populations are likely to embark on accelerated sales of livestock assets to meet the minimum food/non-food needs when the benefit of the current harvest will be reduced. Multi-sectoral response, at scale, is required for all those in crisis and any significant interruption to humanitarian assistance or trade could result in a reversal of the gains made