Attachments
KEY HIGHLIGHTS
Prices: Overall, food and non-food commodity prices remained broadly stable across most states, with a few localized movements.
Local cereal prices remained broadly stable over the past two weeks, with only minor fluctuations likely driven by normal market adjustments in supply and demand. White maize posted modest gains of 1–2% in Hirshabelle and Southwest, eased by 1% in Jubaland, and held firm elsewhere. Red sorghum saw a slight 2% dip in Hirshabelle, with prices unchanged across all other states.
Imported food commodity prices showed only modest movements, likely reflecting routine market adjustments. Rice declined by 3% in Hirshabelle but edged up by 1–2% in Galmudug, Southwest, and Jubaland. Wheat flour followed a similar pattern, dropping 2% in Hirshabelle while gaining 1–2% in Galmudug, Southwest, and Jubaland, with stability elsewhere. Pasta recorded a slight 1% increase in Galmudug. Sugar had shown fluctuations between 1 - 2% in Hirshabelle, and remained steady across other states. Vegetable oil was broadly stable, with only a marginal 1% uptick in Galmudug.
Camel milk prices saw mixed changes, declined by 1% in Hirshabelle, increased by 1–2% in Galmudug, Southwest, and Jubaland, remaining stable in other states. Goat (local quality) prices fell across several states mainly due to limited pasture resulting in poor body conditions: down by 6% in Hirshabelle and Somaliland, 8% in Galmudug, and 10% in Jubaland, while stable in Puntland and Southwest.
Wage labor rates remained stable except for a slight 2% decrease in Mogadishu. Field reports indicate limited labor opportunities with minimal pay in Galmudug, though these changes are not yet reflected in price data. Diesel prices showed mixed small changes: up 1% in Mogadishu, down 2% in Hirshabelle and 1% in Galmudug, with stability elsewhere.
Exchange rates were mostly stable, increasing by 2% in Mogadishu and decreasing by 2% in Hirshabelle, with no changes in other states.
Availability: Cereal shortages (maize and sorghum) were reported in Hirshabelle State due to limited water levels in the Shabelle River, while reduced livestock production across Somalia led to higher demand and rising prices for meat and milk caused by the drought. Additionally, sesame oil and vegetable shortages were noted in Puntland markets, linked to low production in the Shabelle River area, with Beledweyne being the main supply source.
Assortment: Somali markets continue to display strong assortment diversity despite emerging constraints, with recent shortages of maize and sorghum in HirShabelle due to low Shabelle River water levels, reduced livestock production driving higher prices for meat and milk, and limited sesame oil and vegetable supplies in Puntland markets linked to low production in the Beledweyne supply zone.
Quality: Overall, commodity quality standards remained satisfactory across all regions.
Resilience: The movement of goods remained largely consistent, with some minor variations due to security challenges.
Logistics: The 90 km El‑Dahir–Badhan corridor is under rehabilitation and, once completed, is expected to reduce transport costs and lead times, while the Garowe–Galkayo road is nearing completion with only 50 km remaining. Access remains fully open on Galkayo–Abduwaq, partially accessible with minor restrictions on Dhusamareb–Abduwaq, constrained to Jariban due to clan conflict, and restricted along Garowe–Laascaanood–Hargeisa with traffic diverted through approved alternative routes.
TERMS OF TRADE AND PURCHASING POWER KEY INSIGHTS
Galmudug: Goat-to-rice ToT has weakened and is now around 27% below the long-term average and about 21% lower than last year, suggesting early pressure on pastoral purchasing power despite markets continuing to function.
Hirshabelle: Conditions remain broadly stable, but the goat-to-rice ToT is around 24% below the long-term average and about 17% below last year, indicating a growing erosion in household access to cereals under dry and insecurity-affected conditions.
Jubaland: The goat‑to‑sorghum ToT remains under strain, sitting roughly 4% below the long‑term average and broadly similar to last year’s level. This indicates continued pressure on household purchasing power and elevated vulnerability to any further increases in cereal prices.
Puntland: Goat-to-rice ToT remains relatively closer to normal levels but is still around 10% below the long-term average and about 10% below last year, reflecting a gradual decline in household cereal access.
Somaliland: Goat-to-rice ToT is around 21% below the long-term average, though about 8% higher than last year, indicating slight year-on-year improvement but continued pressure relative to historical norms, largely linked to elevated cereal prices.
Southwest: Goat-to-sorghum ToT shows the most severe stress, standing around 34% below the long-term average and about 30% lower than last year, signaling a sharper deterioration in household purchasing power amid prolonged dryness.
IMPLICATIONS ON FOOD INSECURITY
Stress signals are becoming more evident among rural pastoral and agropastoral households, driven by declining purchasing power and below-average ToT performance, with the most pronounced pressure in Southwest, Puntland and Galmudug. Continued close monitoring over the coming months remains critical to detect any acceleration in cereal price pressures and further erosion in household access to staple foods.