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Light rainfall expected over isolated areas in Lower Juba, Bay and along the eastern coastal parts of the country with dry conditions likely to prevail elsewhere.
Review of Past Rainfall and River Levels
Rainfall: Satellite rainfall estimates show that light rainfall was generally observed in the southern regions of Somalia in the last dekad (25 November to 4 December 2024) with moderate cumulative rainfall having been recorded only at Aw Dheegle (55.4 mm) in Lower Shabelle region during the week ending on 25 of November (Figure 1). Only sixteen (16) stations reported rainfall above 1.0 mm between 19 and 25 November 2024 with light rains above 30 mm only recorded in Afgoye (40.2 mm) in Lower Shabelle, Bu’aale (37.0 mm) in Middle Juba region and Kismaayo (35.0 mm) in Lower Juba region.
Compared to anomalies reported last week, the rains received in the last week of November in the southern regions translated into normal to above normal conditions in Lower Juba region for the period 1 October to 30 November 2024 (Map 1). The positive impact of these November rains can be clearly seen on FAO’s Agricultural Stress Index (ASI) for dekad 3 November 2024, with some further improvements in vegetation health particularly in the southern region. This suggests improved water availability for crops and pasture. However, localized areas of severe agricultural stress still persist particularly in Lower Shabelle and Middle Shabelle regions. Indeed, very severe deficits (more than 100 mm) are still evident in Baydhaba and Buur Hakaba districts in Bay regions, Wanla Weyne district in Lower Shabelle region, and Jowhar district in Middle Shabelle region (Map 1). The delayed and poorly distributed Deyr rains implies that the November rains may have only offered temporary relief, as is demonstrated by the latest (November) combined drought index, CDI (Map 2). According to CDI, moderate drought conditions are prevalent over most areas in Southwest, Hirshabelle and Galmudug States and over isolated areas in coastal parts of Lower Juba and northern parts of the country. This highlights the need for continued monitoring and potential intervention in the drought prone areas in these regions.
River Levels: A further drop in water level along the Shabelle River has been observed with the level today at Belet Weyne (4.70 m) being 1.85 m below moderate flood risk level (6.50 m) (Graph 1). The extent of flooding on the eastern upstream of Belet Weyne town occasioned by inflows from Ethiopian sections of the river had been reduced to about 1370 Ha as of 29 November 2024. This reduction in the Shabelle river level is driven by the prevailing dry conditions within its catchment in the Ethiopian highlands.
The current levels along Juba River are well below flood risk levels and are tending towards a convergence with the Long-Term Mean (LTM) and the 2023 levels (Graph 2).