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Light rainfall expected over isolated areas in the southern and along the eastern coastal parts of the country with dry conditions likely to prevail elsewhere.
Review of Past Rainfall and River Levels
Rainfall: Satellite rainfall estimates show that light rainfall was observed over several areas in the southern and northern regions of Somalia with moderate cumulative rainfall of more than 50 mm confined to Lower Juba in the last dekad (18 to 27 November 2024).
Based on the existing observation network, moderate cumulative rainfall was recorded at Baardheere (64.0 mm) in Gedo region and Caluula (61.3 mm) in Bari region between 19 and 25 November 2024. Light rains of more than 30 mm were observed in the following individual stations: Bargaal (44.0 mm), Qardho (42.0 mm) and Murcaayo (40.0 mm) in Bari region, Geedeble (41.0 mm) and Allaybaday (34.5 mm) in Woqooyi Galbeed region, Xudun (34.0 mm) in Sool region, and Burtine (34.0 mm) in Nugaal region.
The positive impact of the November rains can be detected on FAO’s Agricultural Stress Index (ASI) for dekad 2 November 2024, with some improvements in vegetation health particularly in the southern region. This suggests improved water availability for crops and pasture with most croplands in Somaliland being under less agricultural stress. This favourable soil moisture conditions are clearly attributed to the normal to surplus rainfall received over Somaliland from 1 October and 25 November 2024 (Map 1).
Localized areas of severe agricultural stress persist particularly in Lower Shabelle and Middle Shabelle regions. Indeed, very severe deficits (more than 100 mm) are evident in the southern regions including Lower Juba, Middle Juba and Bay regions, Bardheere district in Gedo region, and Wanla Weyne district in Lower Shabelle region (Map 1). The delayed and poorly distributed Deyr rains implies that the November rains may have only offered temporary relief, highlighting the need for continued monitoring and potential intervention in the drought prone areas in these regions.
River Levels: A fourth peculiar sub-seasonal high of 7.85 m was observed on 23 November 2024 along the Shabelle River at Belet Weyne. While no riverine flooding has been observed along the main channel in Somalia, these high river flows have reportedly led to overflows in the Ethiopian sections whose inflows outside the channel led to flooding of about 8,000 Ha of land on the eastern upstream of Belet Weyne town. According to a Joint Flood Impact Assessment Report, 2,383 households in 13 villages were affected. A sharp drop in water levels has been recorded with today’s record (5.65 m) being 2.2 m below high flood risk level (7.30 m) and 1.35 m below moderate flood risk level. This rise-and-fall river level behaviour is driven by the alternate occurrence of wet and dry spells within its catchment in the Ethiopian highlands.
The Juba River levels at Dollow and Luuq have continually dropped from the seasonal high flows reported on 10 November 2024 to 3.58 m and 3.28, today (29 November 2024) which are 92 cm and 2.22 m below moderate flood risk levels, respectively. This drop has been occasioned by reduction of rains over its catchment in the Ethiopian highlands and within Somalia.
Forecast for the Week Between 29 November and 5 December 2024
Rainfall: Light rainfall is expected over isolated areas in the southern and along the eastern coastal parts of the country with dry conditions likely to prevail elsewhere during the coming week, according to NOAA-NCEP GFS. While ICPAC’s forecast anticipates moderate rainfall of more than 50 mm over the same areas, the rains in first week of December are likely to be light in intensity with reduced moisture influx because of the forecast forward propagation of the Madden Julian Oscillation (MJO) index. The temporal and spatial distribution of the forecast rainfall (Map 2) are as follows:
Light cumulative rainfall of less than 50 mm is forecast over isolated areas in Middle Juba region, Badhaadhe and Afamadow districts in Lower Juba region, Dinsoor and Baydhaba districts in Bay region, Dollow, Luuq and Belet Xaawo districts in Gedo region, Marka district in Lower Shabelle region, and in Xudur district in Bakool region. Rains of similar intensity are likely over the eastern coastal areas including Eyl district in Nugaal region, Bandarbeyla, Iskushuban and Caluula district in Bari region. The coastal cloudiness and rains may stretch all the way to Banadir in the first half of the forecast week. The rains over isolated areas in Middle Shabelle region and Dollow district in Gedo region may intensify to moderate amounts (above 50 mm) by the end of the forecast period. It is important to note that some of the areas likely to receive pockets of light to moderate rainfall fall within the catchments of Juba River.
Dry conditions are likely to prevail over most areas in the following regions: Awdal, Woqooyi Galbeed, Togdheer, Sool, Sanaag, Mudug, Galgaduud, Hiraan and Middle Shabelle. Similar dry conditions are also likely to prevail over most inland parts of both Bari and Nugaal regions; and in some areas in Kismaayo district in Lower Juba; Saakow district in Middle Juba; Bardheere, Ceel Waaq and Garbahaarey districts in Gedo region; Sablaale, Baraawe, Kurtunwaarey, Qoryooley, Afgooye and Wanla Weyn districts in Lower Shabelle region; Qansadheere district in Bay region; and Waajid, Rab Dhuure, Ceel Barde and Tayeeglow districts in Bakool region.