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Light to moderate rains expected in Puntland and Somaliland with dry conditions likely throughout central and southern parts of the country.
Review for the week between 7 and 13 May 2024
The second week of May was generally marked by light to moderate rains received at forty (40) stations with heavy rains only being observed at Mataban in Hiraan region and Doolow in Gedo region (Figure 1). Dry conditions prevailed in several other areas.
The following seventeen individual stations out of a total of 41 (Figure 1) received more than 20 mm of cumulative rain between 7 and 13 May 2024: Mahas (81.5 mm), Belet Weyne (69.9 mm) and Mataban (148.3 mm) in Hiiran region; Luuq (56 mm) and Doolow (117.5 mm) in Gedo region; Sheikh (25 mm), Taysa (20 mm), Bulahar (28 mm), Ganlibah (37 mm) and Laaso Dacawo (87.0) in Waqooyi Galbeed region; Baidoa (41.6 mm) in Bay region; Ceel Afweyn (41.5 mm) in Sanaag region; Balidhiig (41 mm) and Xaaji Salah (37 mm) in Togdheer region; Carmo (37 mm) in Bari region and Jowhar (32 mm) and Mahaday Weyn (20 mm) in Middle Shabelle region.
Floods occasioned by breakages along the eastern side of Shabelle River at Belet Weyne were reported to have affected three (3) villages (Bacaad, Qooqane and Lafoole) on 12 May 2024. Fortunately, the residents of the said villages were reportedly safely evacuated to high ground.
Forecast for the week between 14 and 20 May 2024
According to NOAA-NCEP GFS, during the week between 14 and 20 May 2024, light to moderate rain are expected in Puntland and Somaliland with dry conditions likely throughout central and southern parts of the country. This general northward spread of the rains is favored by the northward presence of the Inter Tropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ).
As had been anticipated, the eastward propagation of the Madden Julian Oscillation (MJO) index from the Indian Ocean favored the general dry conditions during the last week (7 – 13). While the index is presently within the region, none of the weather forecast models has captured its effect on rainfall during this forecast week. Given that its 5-day forecast position is associated with better skill and reliability, there is still a likelihood of moderate to heavy rains towards the end of the forecast week i.e., from around 18 May 2024. Day-to-day monitoring is therefore advised.
The rains are likely to decrease thereafter marking the end of the Gu season particularly in Jubaland, Southwest and Hirshabelle.