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Somalia continues to grapple with a severe water crisis due to consecutive failed rainy seasons, with forecasts predicting below-average rainfall for the upcoming Gu season (April–June 2025). The Deyr 2024 rains were erratic and poorly distributed, leaving states such as Galmudug, Hirshabelle, South-West, Jubaland, and Puntland with significantly below-normal precipitation. As a result, groundwater levels have declined, severely impacting rural communities that depend on shallow wells and seasonal water sources.
Currently, over 3 million people are facing acute water shortages, a figure expected to rise depending on the performance of the Gu rains and the scale of WASH humanitarian interventions. The anticipated below-average rainfall and rising temperatures are likely to intensify drought conditions, further straining water resources. Projections indicate a high probability of below-average rainfall in regions such as Gedo, Hiraan, Middle Shabelle, Bakool, Bay, and inland Galguduud and Mudug, exacerbating water scarcity, reducing agricultural productivity, and increasing pressure on livestock-dependent communities.