Tropical Storm Pawan (previously TC06A) currently lies over the southwest Arabian Sea at around 470 km south-southeast of Socotra in Yemen.
As Pawan turns and tracks towards Somalia, it is expected that the strength will intensify. Under the current conditions, Pawan is expected to make landfall within the next 30 hours and based on the current trajectory, the cyclone will make landfall in Puntland and some parts of Somaliland, namely Awdal and Sannag regions. Strong winds, storm surges and heavy rainfall are expected to cause flooding and trigger landslides, resulting in casualties, as well as damages to crops livelihoods, livestock, infrastructure and housing.
Based on the current trajectory, the tropical cyclone could make landfall affecting the Bosaso IDP Camp in Bari Region of Puntland. This camp was recently affected by floods and the families living in the camp are particularly vulnerable should the tropical storm make landfall.
It is not clear how many people will be affected when the Pawan makes landfall, however, based on the trajectory, the total population of the three provinces most likely to be affected is 2.3 million, however it is difficult to estimate the proportion that live on the coast, as some 65% of the population are nomadic.
Cyclone Pawan is the eighth cyclone to form over the north Indian Ocean this year— a record for this decade.