Attachments
Somalia at a Glance: 24 June-21 July 2023
VITAL TRENDS
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From 24 June to 21 July 2023, ACLED records almost 200 political violence events and nearly 480 reported fatalities in Somalia. Lower Shabelle, Banadir, and Lower Juba regions were the epicenter of political violence during this period due to al-Shabaab attacks against Somali security forces.
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Lower Juba region had the highest number of fatalities, with over 150 recorded during the reporting period. Galgaduud region followed, with more than 130. Security force operations against al-Shabaab militants accounted for over 70% of the reported fatalities in both regions.
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The most common event type was battles, with 130 events, followed by explosions/remote violence, with nearly 50 events. ACLED records over 30 incidents of violence targeting civilians during the reporting period, with almost 70% perpetrated by al-Shabaab militants.
Political Crisis Deepens as Somalia Transitions to Direct Elections
In May 2023, the Somali government announced that a one-person-one-vote system will be introduced in the next national and local elections. The decision to grant universal suffrage deviates from the indirect electoral system that, for over three decades, gave power to clan-based politics. Under the indirect voting system, members of the parliament and senate elect the president, while clan delegates elect lawmakers in the federal government as well as regional member states. The decision coincided with the first statewide direct municipal elections in the semi-autonomous northern Somali state of Puntland in May, marking the first state to do so after Somaliland. Debates in the House of Representatives of Puntland over electoral reform were nevertheless accompanied by sporadic outbreaks of violence by security forces divided along clan affiliations in June, causing an uptick in violence in the state’s administrative capital, Garowe.
Long-standing political disputes, clan rivalries, financial shortages, and insurgent activity pose a major challenge to the holding of free and fair direct elections beyond Puntland. Al-Shabaab has long targeted clan delegates, election centers, and electoral officials to disrupt the vote. In 2021, a delay in the planned April elections triggered political infighting between security forces divided along clan lines in Mogadishu. This report explores the intersection between elections and violence in Somalia, with a focus on electoral struggles in Puntland and the potential for future clan-based violence.
Electoral Reforms to Put an End to Clan Dominance in Politics
In May, the Somali government launched its first national census in nearly five decades, which is set to end ahead of the 2026 federal elections. The positive conclusion of the census is considered a prerequisite for the introduction of universal suffrage, approved at the end of May by the National Consultative Council (NCC) – a federal body consisting of the president, prime minister, state presidents, and the Banadir governor. The agreement, yet to be turned into law as it is pending approval by parliament, is set to make changes in the current voting system, including through the direct election of the president and deputy president on a single ticket. Additionally, the position of prime minister is set to be abolished.
Called the ‘4.5 formula,’ the current voting system consists of a mechanism for sharing political power among four major clans (Darod, Dir/Isaaq, Hawiye, and Rahanweyn/Digil-Mirifle) and the ‘minority’ groups. The new system threatens this clan-based power-sharing system, in which top positions in the federal government are reserved for the Hawiye and Darod clans – the two largest Somali clans. Furthermore, the agreement revokes the powers of clans and clan elders in the elections. Currently, clan delegates have a considerable role in the indirect elections by voting for state and federal lawmakers. Thus, they have been a target of al-Shabaab attacks during election periods, with ACLED recording over 50 such incidents by al-Shabaab militants since 2021. Over 70% of these attacks occurred in Banadir region (see chart below), which is one of al-Shabaab’s hotspots, and where al-Shabaab conducts the majority of its civilian targeting attacks.