Attachments
Somalia at a Glance: 23 March to 19 April 2024
VITAL TRENDS
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ACLED records more than 205 political violence events and at least 539 reported fatalities from 23 March to 19 April. Most political violence centered in the Lower Shabelle region, where al-Shabaab increased attacks targeting security forces.
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Lower Shabelle region had the highest number of reported fatalities, with 117 recorded during the reporting period. Mudug region followed, with 114 reported fatalities. This is due to increased al-Shabaab attacks in Lower Shabelle and clashes between security forces and al-Shabaab militants in Mudug region.
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The most common event type was battles, with over 127 events, followed by explosions/remote violence, with 42 events. Most of these battles and explosions/remote violence events involved al-Shabaab.
Dispute Over Constitutional Amendment and Increased al-Shabaab Attacks
Somalia has used a provisional constitution since 2012, which the Federal Parliament initially hoped to finalize by 2016. The constitution was adopted as a provisional document by the National Constituent Assembly --- composed of 825 representatives from various societies --- because a referendum could not be held due to the security situation.1 After two previous federal administrations failed to finalize the constitution, the current Somali government kicked off the process to amend and formally approve it in May 2023.
This process led to the upper and lower houses of Parliament accepting the new amendments to the constitution with a majority vote on 30 March. The first round of new amendments focus on four out of 15 chapters of the constitution and includes measures to strengthen the role of the president, abolish the prime minister post and replace it with a vice president, and introduce universal suffrage in place of the clan-based indirect voting system.2 The new amendments give power to the president to sack the prime minister before the role is replaced with a vice president in the next presidential election, whereas the provisional constitution gave this power to Parliament. The approved amendments also put in place direct voting for the federal president, vice president, and state leaders and extend the term of office of the federal president and Parliament from four to five years. These amendments, however, have been criticized, including by the Puntland administration and politicians representing other regions. Former presidents Mohamed Abdullahi Mohamed, also known as Farmajo, and Sharif Sheikh Ahmed warned about the changes in the provisional constitution affecting the clan-based power-sharing system, while two former prime ministers cited the lack of consultation and emphasized the need for a referendum to have widely agreed-upon changes.3 Around 70 members of Parliament rejected the new amendments by arguing that the current amendment process is creating a new constitution rather than amending the provisional constitution.
In the meantime, the counter-insurgency operation has continued in central Somalia. Notably, two al-Shabaab leaders were injured in a targeted airstrike on 2 April that also reportedly killed more than 20 militants.
Puntland Announces Independence from Somalia Amid Constitutional Amendment Dispute
The constitutional reform process has sparked new tensions between the federal government and the semi-autonomous Puntland administration.5 A day after the legislative body's approval of the amendments, on 31 March, the Puntland administration announced itself as an independent government from Somalia by withdrawing from the federal system until the constitution is approved via a referendum.6 Puntland's information minister accused President Hassan Sheikh Mohamud of "gather[ing] authority into his hands."7 This is the second time Puntland has cut ties with the current administration. In January 2023, the Puntland administration announced that it was acting independently from the federal government until the completion of the constitution via referendum.
The dispute between Puntland and the federal government escalated when delegates from Puntland met with representatives of the Ethiopian Foreign Affairs Ministry in Addis Ababa, Ethiopia, on 3 April to discuss trade cooperation. This meeting was not coordinated with the federal government of Somalia9 and came amid tension between Mogadishu and Addis Ababa over a memorandum of understanding signed between Somaliland and Ethiopia. This controversial MoU gives Ethiopia access to the Red Sea in exchange for officially recognizing Somaliland as a country. Following the recent meeting between Ethiopia and Puntland, the Somali government expelled the Ethiopian ambassador from Mogadishu, recalled its ambassador from Addis Ababa, and ordered the closure of the Ethiopian consulates in Somaliland and Puntland. The Somaliland and Puntland administrations rejected the federal government's orders to close Ethiopia's consulate in their respective capital towns.
The federal government is trying to address the grievances regarding the amendments to the constitution by engaging with all political stakeholders in the country and defusing tension with the Puntland administration. Hence, on 16 April, the government invited all state leaders for a meeting to discuss the amendments. However, the Puntland administration declined this invitation and indicated its intention to organize its own meeting to determine the future of federalism. Reportedly, Jubaland, Southwest, Galmudug, and Hirshabelle state leaders showed interest in attending the meeting organized by Puntland. If the dispute is not resolved soon, it might further affect the relationship between the federal government and the Puntland administration, involve other state administrations, and impact the federal system in the country.
Al-Shabaab's Renewed Attacks Against Security Forces
Between 23 March and 19 April, al-Shabaab militants conducted several coordinated attacks against government security forces and the African Union Transition Mission in Somalia (ATMIS) forces. Amid a lull in government-backed operations due to factional divisions within the coalition (especially between the Hawadle and Abgal clans), al-Shabaab has increased its activity in Hirshabelle, particularly in areas along the Shabelle river, near the Cali Fool Dheere forest, and around the villages situated between Balcad and Mogadishu (see map below). Albeit at a slower pace, Somali security forces and allied clan militias carried out intermittent raids against al-Shabaab in the southern part of Mudug and Lower Shabelle regions. The latter has long been al-Shabaab's operational center in central Somalia.