Famine is projected in Baidoa and Burhakaba districts, Bay region, during October-December unless lifesaving assistance is urgently ramped up to reach the people most in need.
About 7.8 million Somalis have been affected by the worst drought in four decades, with more than 1 million displaced by drought including nearly 99,000 in August
Humanitarian partners are racing against time to save lives and livelihoods. As of July, more than 5.3 million people have received assistance, up from 3.4 million in June.
Donors have generously boosted funding. The Humanitarian Response Plan is 65 per cent funded as of 31 August. However, critical sectors remain underfunded, and needs are growing
CERF has allocated an additional US$10 million and the Somalia Humanitarian Fund $9.5 million to support communities in areas at the highest risk of famine.
7.8M people affected by the drought
1.1M people displaced by drought
5.3M people reached with drought response
4.3M people are food insecure
300.6K people projected to be in IPC-5 in October
6.4M people lack access to safe water
Famine projected in the Bay region from October to December.
Famine (IPC Phase 5) is projected to unfold in the Bay region of south-central Somalia during October to December if multi-sectoral humanitarian assistance does not urgently reach the people in most need, according to the results of the Integrated Food Security Phase Classification (IPC) Famine Review Committee (FRC). Although levels of acute malnutrition among children and the rate of hunger-related deaths have not yet met the IPC’s technical definition of famine (IPC Phase 5), the thresholds could be reached in the coming months. The famine is projected to occur in Baidoa and Burkhakaba districts and among the newly arrived internally displaced people (IDPs) in Baidoa settlements. Bay region is one of the areas where famine claimed lives in 2011 and was also the epicentre of the drought-related humanitarian crisis in 2017. Over the past two years, the region has experienced a large-scale loss of food and incomes, primarily due to the impact of drought, resulting in a sharp increase in the number of people who have limited access to food and have lost their livelihoods. Malnutrition levels are high (Critical) in the region, with the main referral hospital reporting an increase in the number of children admitted with complications related to severe acute malnutrition.
According to the IPC analysis, the famine conditions are likely to last until at least March 2023, as the 2022 October to December rains are projected to be significantly below average, representing the fifth consecutive failed rainfall season in Somalia. The gravity of the crisis will worsen because commodities prices will likely remain high amid increased population displacements, disease outbreaks and increased mortality due to inadequate health and water services, all of which will be compounded by increased insecurity and conflict. With almost 60,000 people in Baidoa and close to 15,000 in Burhakaba estimated to be in IPC 5 during July-September, the latest projections demonstrate a likely two-fold increase in OctoberDecember, with the numbers rising in the two districts to 137,000 people and almost 30,000, respectively. Given that households in Bay and other areas of Somalia have suffered significant food consumption gaps for many months, the accumulation of deaths over time could easily surpass those that occur during a shorter period that meets the technical definition of famine. In any case, even if the technical threshold for the famine is not reached within this period, a largescale humanitarian response is still critically needed to treat and prevent acute malnutrition among children and limit hungerrelated deaths that occur amid Crisis (IPC Phase 3) and Emergency (IPC Phase 4) outcomes.
- UN Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs
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