Somalia Seasonal Monitor: November 6, 2019

Situation Report
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FEWS NET publishes a Seasonal Monitor for Somalia every 10 days (dekad) through the end of the current October to December Deyr rainy season. The purpose of this document is to provide updated information on the progress of the Deyr season to facilitate contingency and response planning. This Somalia Seasonal Monitor is valid through November 10, 2019, and is produced in collaboration with U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), the Food Security and Nutrition Analysis Unit (FSNAU) Somalia, the Somali Water and Land Information System (SWALIM), a number of other agencies, and several Somali nongovernmental organizations (NGOs).

Moderate to heavy rains cause flooding in South-Central Somalia but rainfall is suppressed in the North

Moderate to heavy Deyr rainfall continued across most of southern and central Somalia through the last ten days of October, while the rains predominantly subsided in Somalia’s northern regions. Cumulative rainfall from October 21-30 ranged from 10 to 75 millimeters in most of the south and some central areas (Figure 1). Parts of Bay and the Jubas received 100-150 mm, which is 10-75 mm above the long-term average (Figure 2). Cumulative above-average rainfall in October led to flooding in the South, which has caused significant population displacement and damage to crops, other household assets, and road networks. Worst affected areas include Beledweyne of Hiiraan, Jowhar of Middle Shabelle, Bardhere and Luuq of Gedo, Baidoa and Dinsor of Bay and parts of the Juba regions. Conversely, northern Somalia received less than 20 mm of rainfall from October 21-30, which is 50 mm less than average.

Further, northeastern areas including Bari, Nugaal, and northern Mudug, remained dry, which has exacerbated poor rangeland and livestock conditions. Cumulative rainfall since the start of the Deyr in late September/early October is predominantly above average in the Northwest, South, and southern central Somalia and near average in the Northeast with localized areas of below average.

In the Northwest, no rainfall was reported in most livelihood zones of Awdal, Woqooyi Galbeed, Togdheer, Sool and Sanaag regions during the reporting period. However, localized areas of Northern Inland Pastoral (NIP) and Hawd Pastoral livelihood zones of Sool region were reported to have received localized light to average rains. As a result of the rains received earlier in the season, pasture and water availability in most livelihood zones are average to above average with normal migrations occurring within the zones.

However, atypical livestock migration from Bari and Nugaal regions to areas in Sool were reported. Locust infestation in Hawd Pastoral livelihood zone of Togdheer is further worsening pasture availability.

In the Northeast, most livelihood zones in Bari, Nugaal, and northern Mudug areas continued to experience abnormal dryness as the Deyr rains are significantly delayed and yet to start. However, localized areas of Hawd Pastoral of Burtinle and Galkayo received light showers. As a result, pasture and water conditions in these areas remain poor to below average, and water trucking is currently the main source of water for most areas. In addition, atypical livestock migration occurred in Addun Pastoral and parts of Northern Inland Pastoral areas in Bari, Nugaal, Sool, and Sanaag regions.

In central regions, moderate rains characterized with poor distribution were reported in most livelihood zones in Galgaduud and southern Mudug. In addition, little to no rainfall was reported in the entirety of the Coastal Deeh Pastoral livelihood zone or in parts of central Hawd Pastoral, central Addun Pastoral, and Cowpea Belt Agropastoral livelihood zones. Pasture and water conditions are average in most areas that received rains earlier in the month, but poor rangeland conditions prevail in Hawd Pastoral areas of Abudwaq and parts of Addun Pastoral of Dhusamareb and Galkayo districts. Locust damage on pasture and browse was also reported in many areas of the region. Normal livestock migrations within livelihood zones in search of pasture and water are ongoing.

In the South, moderate to heavy rains with uniform distribution were reported in most livelihood zones, especially in Bay and Bakool, Lower and Middle Juba, Gedo, and large parts of Hiiraan. However, some riverine and agropastoral areas of Buloburte and Jalalaqsi of Hiiraan received only localized light rains. Overall, the rains were beneficial and improved pasture, browse and water availability.

However, flooding episodes were reported Beledweyne town and its environs (Hiiraan), where 80 percent of the town and several villages were inundated, properties destroyed, and entire villages displaced. Flooding also affected parts of Jowhar district (Middle Shabelle). In contrast, downstream areas of the Shabelle river in Kurtunwarey (Lower Shabelle) are semi-dry. Flash floods were reported in parts of Bay, Bakool, and Middle Juba where standing crops were destroyed. Rain gauge stations recorded 112mm in Elbarde (Bakool), 97.7 millimeters in Baidoa (Bay), 81.5 mm in Buloburte (Hiiraan), 63.2 mm in Dinsor (Bay), 55 mm in Janaale (Lower Shabelle), 46.5 mm in Beledweyne (Hiiraan), 30 mm in Sakow (Middle Juba) and 24.5 mm in Xudur (Bakool).

According to satellite-derived eMODIS Normalized Vegetation Index (NDVI) for the October 21-31 period, improved vegetation conditions are visible in many areas of the country. However, negative anomalies are widely visible in central and northereastern parts of the country due to below-average rains and in southern regions where river flooding and flash floods impacted vegetation (Figure 3). According to the NOAA Climate Predication Center’s seven-day rainfall forecast, moderate to heavy rains with uniform distribution ranging from 20 mm up to 125 mm are forecast to fall in many areas in southern, central, and northern Somalia from November 5 to 11 (Figure 4). However, most of Juba regions and large parts of Sanaag regions are expected to receive little to no rainfall.

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