Somalia Seasonal Monitor: November 5, 2018

Situation Report
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FEWS NET publishes a Seasonal Monitor for Somalia every 10 days (dekad) through the end of the current October to December Deyr rainy season. The purpose of this document is to provide updated information on the progress of the Deyr season to facilitate contingency and response planning. This Somalia Seasonal Monitor is valid through November 10, 2018 and is produced in collaboration with U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), the Food Security and Nutrition Analysis Unit (FSNAU) Somalia, the Somali Water and Land Information System (SWALIM), a number of other agencies, and several Somali nongovernmental organizations (NGOs).

Below average precipitation continued during the last 10 days of October

Deyr rainfall varied in amount and temporal and spatial distribution across Somalia during the last 10 days of October. Overall rainfall performance was below average, but southern regions received more rains than central and northern regions (Figure 1). According to satellite-derived rainfall estimates (RFE2), large parts of Gedo, Bay, and Juba regions and localized areas of Shabelle, Bakool, and Hiiraan regions received 10-75 millimeters (mm) of rainfall while the rest of the country received 1-10 mm or no rainfall. Ground information confirmed RFE2 rainfall estimates in southern regions, but also reported localized light to moderate rains that fell in pastoral areas in central regions and the Northwest. Total cumulative rainfall for this period, according to the RFE2 estimates, is 25-150 mm below the 1981-2010 average in most parts of the country, although cumulative rainfall in most of Bari and Awdal regions is climatologically average (Figure 2). Due to increased precipitation in the upper river catchments in the Ethiopian highlands, the Shabelle and Juba river water levels have risen slightly.

In the Northwest, localized light to moderate rainfall was reported in most livelihood zones. Awdal and Woqooyi Galbeed received localized light to moderate rain in most areas, including parts of Guban Pastoral livelihood zone in Zeylac district, which is typically dry at this time of year. Localized moderate to light rainfall was also reported in Togdheer Agropastoral and Hawd Pastoral livelihood zones in Togdheer region and in Hawd Pastoral and Northern Inland Pastoral (NIP) livelihood zones in Sool region. However, no precipitation was reported during the 10-day period in Sanaag.

In the Northeast, most of Bari, Nugaal, and northern Mudug regions received no rainfall. However, fields reports indicated very localized light to moderate rains fell in NIP livelihood zone in Qardho and Bandarbeyla districts in Bari. Some localized light precipitation was also reported in East Golis Pastoral livelihood zone in Alula, Qandala, and Bossaso districts in Bari and in Hawd and Addun Pastoral livelihood zones in Nugaal and northern Mudug.

In the central regions, most pastoral and agropastoral livelihood zones in Galagaduud and southern Mudug received little to no rainfall. However, localized moderate rainfall was reported in Hawd and Addun Pastoral livelihood zones in Dhusamareb and Abudwaq districts, Cowpea Agropastoral livelihood zone in Harardhere and Elder districts, and parts of Coastal Deeh Pastoral and Fishing livelihood zone in Elder district.

In the South, rainfall quantity and distribution were mixed. There was moderate rainfall in most of Bay and Lower and Middle Juba, as well as localized light to moderate rain in pastoral areas in Hiiraan. Localized moderate rain also fell across most of Bakool and Gedo, except for Wajid district, which received no rain at all according to field reports. Although Middle and Lower Shabelle received moderate rainfall in Southern Inland Pastoral and Sorghum High Potential Agropastoral livelihood zones, little to no rainfall was reported in riverine areas or in Middle Shabelle’s Coastal Deeh Pastoral and Fishing and Cowpea Agropastoral livelihood zones. Rain gauge stations recorded 54 mm in Halgan (Hiiraan), 85mm in Sakow (Middle Juba), 56 mm in Baidoa (Bay) and 30 mm in Elbarde (Bakool). River water levels began to rise due to improved precipitation in the upper catchments in the Ethiopian highlands, but remain well below flood risk. In Beledweyne (Hiiraan), for example, river levels increased to 3.77 mm from 2.12 mm reported in the October 11-20 reporting period.

The satellite-derived eMODIS Normalized Vegetation Index (NDVI) for October 11-20 shows a deterioration in conditions due to the negative impact of delayed and below-average Deyr rainfall October, especially in southern Somalia (Figure 3). The Climate Prediction Center’s seven-day forecast through November 11th predicts little to no rainfall across most of the country.

However, 20-60 mm of rainfall is expected along the coast in East and West Golis Pastoral livelihood zones, localized areas in West Golis Pastoral livelihood zone in Awdal and Woqooyi Galbeed, and localized pastoral and agropastoral areas in Gedo and Lower and Middle Juba (Figure 4). Due to an increased likelihood of suppressed rainfall in the Ethiopian highlands, Juba and Shabelle river levels are likely to be sustained or decline through November 11th.

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