Somalia Seasonal Monitor: November 24, 2020

Situation Report
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Deyr rainfall subsides across the country in mid-November, with notable deficitsin the South

During the November 11-20 period, deyr rainfall largely subsided across most central and northern regions and parts of the South. Only parts of the South, especially in Lower Juba, Shabelle, parts of Bay, and Gedo, received moderate to light rainfall. According to preliminary Climate Hazards Group InfraRed Precipitation with Station data (CHIRPS), southern regions received 5-25 millimeters (mm) of rainfall. In contrast, most central and northern regions received little to no rainfall (Figure 1). Compared to the 1981-2018 average, the dry conditions in Bakool,
Hiiraan, central, and northern regions were climatologically average. In the rest of the South, rainfall was 10-50 mm below the long-term average (Figure 2). In riverine areas, there were no new reports of flooding episodes, but several areas in the Shabelle and Juba regions remain inundated. As of November 18, SWALIM river water level monitoring data indicated a low flood risk at monitoring sites.

In the Northwest, dry conditions continued as no rainfall was reported across all pastoral and agropastoral livelihood zones in Awdal, Woqooyi Galbeed, Togdheer, Sool, and Sanaag regions during the November 11-20 period. The field reports align with the CHIRPS imagery, which both indicate that low rainfall in mid-November is climatologically average. Cold weather continued in Woqooyi Galbeed and Awdal, but rising temperatures were recorded in the other parts of the Northwest. The quality of pasture and water resources continued to decline in pastoral areas in Togdheer, Sool, and Sanaag. In these areas, the dry conditions are triggering frequent internal livestock movements. Many households and livestock from Hawd of Togdheer regions have reportedly moved into neighboring pastoral areas in Ethiopia.

In the Northeast, little to no rainfall occurred in all pastoral livelihood zones in Bari, Nugaal, and northern Mudug during the November 11-20 period. In Bari, field reports indicated there was no rainfall, but CHIRPS imagery shows light precipitation in coastal and adjacent pastoral areas. In contrast, both ground information and CHIRPS imagery show observed dry conditions across all livelihood zones in Nugaal and northern Mudug, including Coastal Deeh, Northern Inland, and Addun Pastoral zones. Persistently dry conditions, coupled with damage from desert locusts, are causing atypical degeneration of pasture, browse, and water resources in most of the Northeast.

In central regions, following several weeks of average to above-average rainfall, precipitation subsided in most livelihood zones of Galgaduud and southern Mudug during the November 11-20 period. Little to no rainfall was reported, apart from localized, moderate rain in Cowpea Agropastoral and Coastal Deeh Pastoral of Harardhere and Elder. Although the deyr rains have improved pasture, browse, and cowpea crop development, the widespread desert locust infestation has caused considerable damage to rangelands and crops.

In the South, most of Bakool, Bay, Gedo, Hiraan, and Middle Juba received little to no rain during the November 11-20 period. However, most livelihood zones in Lower Juba, localized areas of Bay, parts of southern Gedo, and most of the Shabelle regions received localized, moderate to light rain. Although there were no new reports of river flood events in riverine areas, large swaths of farmland in the Shabelle and Juba regions remain inundated due to multiple flood events since July, including in early November. Rain gauge stations recorded 119 mm in Afgoye (Lower Shabelle), 20 mm in Sakow (Middle Juba), 5.5 mm in Jamame (Lower Juba), 0 mm in Baidoa and Dinsor (Bay), 0 mm in Hudur (Bakool), and 0 mm in Beletweyne (Hiiraan). With reduced rainfall amounts and coverage in this reporting period, vast vegetation deficits continue to be visible across many areas, especially in Gedo, Juba, and Shabelle regions.

The satellite-derived eMODIS Normalized Vegetation Index (NDVI) for the November 11-20 period shows a deep deficit in the far southern regions, especially in Gedo, Lower Shabelle, and Lower and Middle Juba. However, some improvements are visible compared to the previous reporting period. Furthermore, vegetation vigor is declining in the North, where deyr rainfall has been minimal for more than three weeks and desert locust damage has occurred. However, the NDVI shows a surplus in parts of central regions, Bay and Bakool, Hiiraan, and parts of Middle Shabelle due to relatively better rainfall performance (Figure 3). The next seasonal monitor will capture the impacts of Tropical Cyclone Gati, which made landfall in northern Somalia on November 22 and is now off the coast of Woqooyi Galbeed. According to the NOAA Climate Prediction Center's forecast for November 24-30, light to moderate rainfall – associated with the cyclone – is expected in the Northwest and northern coastal areas. However, a dry spell is forecast across the rest of the North and most central regions. In the South, many areas are expected to receive light to moderate rainfall (Figure 4).