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Average to above-average rainfall in the North and dry conditions in South-Central
Between May 11 and 20, average to above-average rainfall was received in many parts of the North, but little to no rainfall was received in most central and southern regions. Northern areas received 10-75 millimeters (mm) of rainfall, with the exception of coastal areas where little to no rainfall was reported. In Lower and Middle Juba, average to above-average rainfall of 10-75 mm was received, but little rainfall was reported in all other southern and central areas (Figure 1). Total rainfall amounts received during the reporting period were 10-150 mm above the 2005-to-2009 short-term mean in the North and in Lower and Middle Juba. In most areas of southern and central Somalia, rainfall was 10-25 percent below average (Figure 2).
In the Northwest, light to heavy rainfall was reported in all areas. In West Golis Agropastoral areas of Awdal and Woqooyi Galbeed, East Golis livelihood zone of Sanaag, and western areas of Northern Inland Pastoral livelihood zone, light to moderate rainfall was reported. In Guban Pastoral livelihood zone, one day of moderate rainfall was reported, which was atypical for this area that does not usually receive rainfall during this time. In Hawd Pastoral livelihood zone of Sool and most livelihood zones in Togdheer, moderate to heavy rainfall was received. Flashfloods were reported in Togdheer Agropastoral livelihood zone.
Rainfall during the reporting period led to improvements in pasture and water availability.
In the Northeast, average to above-average rainfall was reported in Addun and Hawd Pastoral livelihood zones in northern Mudug and Nugaal, localized areas of East Golis livelihood zone in Qardho and Iskushuban Districts of Bari, and localized areas of Northern Inland Pastoral livelihood zone in Bari, particularly in Qardho and Bandarbeyl Districts. Rainfall during the reporting period was below average in all other areas of the Northeast. Coastal livelihood zones received little to no rainfall.
In central regions, rainfall totals varied across Galgaduud and southern Mudug. Localized light to moderate rainfall was received in pastoral livelihood zones of Elder, Harardheer, Elbur, and Dhusamareeb Districts. Cowpea-producing agropastoral areas of Elder, Harardhere, and Elbur also received average rainfall. However, little to no rainfall was received in all coastal areas with the exception of Elder and pastoral livelihood zones in Adaado District.
In the South, few areas received rainfall between May 10 and 20. Bay, Bakool, Gedo, and Hiiraan received little to no rainfall. Rain gauge stations in Bay recorded 0-10 mm of rainfall during the reporting period and no rainfall was recorded in Bakool. In Lower and Middle Juba, average to above-average rainfall was received in most livelihood zones, except parts of Badade District, where rainfall deficits have persisted throughout the season. Rain gauges in Jamamay and Sakow recorded 96 mm and 50 mm, respectively. In Lower and Middle Shabelle, light to moderate rainfall was received in most livelihood zones, although little to no rainfall was reported in Adan Yabaal and Adale Districts or in riverine areas of Balad, Marca, and Barawa. River flooding was reported in Balad District of Middle Shabelle, damaging standing crops in Maandheere, Deymo Samo, and Cadaadley villages. However, the river water levels have recently declined as a result of below-average rainfall and minimal rainfall in the Ethiopian highlands. River water levels in Beledweyne of Hiiraan were recorded at 5 meters, down from 6.5 meters in early May.
The satellite-derived eMODIS Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) shows slight improvements in vegetation conditions in southern and central areas of the country as a result of recent rainfall, but conditions remain below average (Figure 3). The seven-day rainfall forecast for May 23-29 from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Association’s Climate Prediction Center (NOAA/CPC) forecasts 10-30 mm of rainfall in the North, with some areas receiving 30-80 mm of rainfall. However, most central and southern regions of the country are forecast to remain dry (Figure 4).