FEWS NET publishes a Seasonal Monitor for Somalia every 10 days (dekad) through the end of the current April to June Gu rainy season. The purpose of this document is to provide updated information on the progress of the Gu season to facilitate contingency and response planning. This Somalia Seasonal Monitor is valid through June 10, 2017 and is produced in collaboration with the Food Security and Nutrition Analysis Unit, U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), and the Somali Water and Land Information System (SWALIM).
Localized average to above-average rainfall in northern and central regions
Between May 21 and 31, localized areas of northern, west-central, and southern Somalia received 10-25 millimeters (mm) of rainfall (Figure 1). A few areas of Hawd Pastoral livelihood zone of Nugaal and Sool Regions and parts of Hiiraan Region received 50-125 mm of rainfall. Little to no rainfall was reported in the rest of the country. In areas that received rainfall, total amounts were 10-150 mm above the 2005-to-2009 short-term mean. In areas that did not receive rainfall, deficits were 10-50 mm below the short-term mean (Figure 2).
In the Northwest, moderate to heavy rainfall was reported in agropastoral and pastoral livelihood zones in Woqooyi Galbeed and Awdal Regions. Guban Pastoral livelihood zone, which does not typically receive Gu rainfall, received flash floods from neighboring mountainous East Golis Pastoral livelihood zone. West Golis Pastoral livelihood zone of Togdheer received substantial amounts of rainfall, and all other livelihood zones in this region received moderate to light rainfall. In Sanaag Region, some pastoral areas of Erigabo, Laqoray, and Elafweyne received light to moderate rainfall while other parts of the region remained dry. In Sool Region, large parts of Northern Inland Pastoral and Hawd Pastoral livelihood zones received moderate rainfall, which further improved pasture and water resources.
In the Northeast, rainfall performance varied across districts and livelihood zones. Moderate rainfall was reported in Hawd Pastoral livelihood zone of Burtinle and Garowe Districts, but all remaining areas of Nugaal and northern Mudug received little or no rainfall. In Bari Region, localized, moderate rainfall was reported in Qardho, Iskushuban, and Bandarbeyla of Northern Inland Pastoral livelihood zone, pockets of Bandarbeyla of Coastal Deeh livelihood zone, and Qandala and Iskushuban of East Golis livelihood zone. All other areas of Bari Region received little or no rainfall.
In central regions, rainfall varied across Galgaduud and southern Mudug. Rainfall totals were generally below average to average in the cowpea producing areas of Elder, Harardhere, and Elbur. However, little to no rainfall was received in Adado District and the coastal livelihood zone in both regions.
In the South, little to no rainfall was reported in Bay and Bakool Regions. Exceptions to this were in localized areas of Elbarde and Tiyeeglow Districts where moderate rainfall was received. Most livelihood zones in Gedo remained dry, except for pockets of Luq, Garboharey, and Elwak Districts that received light, but below-average, rainfall. Average to above-average rainfall was reported in Southern Agropastoral and Juba Gravity Irrigation livelihood zones of Lower Juba; however, no rainfall was reported in pastoral livelihood zones of Lower Juba or any area of Middle Juba. In Lower and Middle Shabelle, Southern Inland Pastoral and Sorghum Agropstoral High Potential livelihood zones and riverine areas of Jowhar, Qoriyoley, Kurtunwarey, and Sablale Districts received average rainfall. No rainfall was reported in all other areas of Lower and Middle Shabelle. In Hiiraan, well distributed light to moderate rainfall was received in Beledweyn District and Southern Inland Pastoral livelihood zone of Buloburte and Jalalaqsi. However, rainfall was below average in agropastoral and riverine livelihood zones of Buloburti and Jalalaqsi. No river flooding was reported between May 21 and 31 and river water levels remain below risk levels in both the Shabelle and Juba Rivers.
The satellite-derived eMODIS Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) shows vegetation improvements in many areas of southern Somalia (Figure 3). The seven-day rainfall forecast ending June 10 suggests dry conditions in most parts of the country. Exceptions to this are localized pastoral areas in the Northeast and Northwest and localized areas of southern Somalia (Figure 4).