Somalia Seasonal Monitor: June 26, 2018

Situation Report
Originally published


Dry spell continues across most of Somalia in mid-June


According to satellite-derived rainfall estimates (RFE2), no precipitation was recorded in most regions of Somalia during the June 11-20 period, except for small areas in the Northwest and South (Figure 1). Ground information confirmed that localized areas of Northwestern Agropastoral, West Golis Pastoral, and Hawd Pastoral livelihood zones in Awdal, Woqooyi Galbeed, and Sanaag regions received light to moderate rains. A similar pattern of localized rainfall was reported in most livelihood zones in Lower Juba, Middle Juba, and Bay regions. In general, little to no precipitation in mid-June is climatologically average for most of the country; however, a few localized pockets in the northwestern, central, and southern regions experienced deficits 10-50 mm below the 2005-2009 short-term mean (Figure 2). No new flooding events were reported during the middle period of June.


In the Northwest, localized light to moderate rains were reported in parts of Northwestern Agropastoral and Hawd Pastoral livelihood zones in Woqooyi Galbeed and localized areas of West Golis Pastoral livelihood zone in Awdal, Woqooyi Galbeed, and Sanaag regions. Little to no rainfall was reported in the rest of Awdal, Togdheer, Sool, and Sanaag regions.

In the Northeast, no rainfall was reported across the pastoral livelihood zones of Bari, Nugaal, and northern Mudug. Little or no precipitation has been reported in these regions over the past month. However, dry conditions are climatologically typical in the Northeast at this time of year, and access to water and pasture is average in most areas.

In the central regions, no rainfall was reported across the pastoral or agropastoral livelihood zones, leading to localized rainfall deficits. Although the dry spell is beginning to negatively impact rangeland resources, access to pasture and water remains favorable at this time.

In the South, no rainfall was recorded in Hiiraan, Bakool, and Gedo regions, similar to the last 10-day period. Light showers were reported in most livelihood zones of Bay and Middle Juba, as well as Southern Agropastoral livelihood zone in Lower Shabelle. In contrast, moderate rainfall of average intensity and distribution was reported across the livelihood zones of Lower Juba. Rain gauge stations recorded 25 mm in Sakow (Middle Juba), 7.5 mm in Baidoa (Bay), and 0 mm in Afgoye (Lower Shabelle), Hudur (Bakool), and Beledweyn (Hiiraan). While no new flooding events were reported, some areas in the riverine livelihood zones of Hiiraan, Lower Shabelle, Middle Shabelle, Lower Juba, Middle Juba, and Gedo remain underwater.

The satellite-derived eMODIS Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) continues to show average to above-average vegetation conditions in many parts of the country, despite a long dry spell in most areas since late May (Figure 3). The seven-day rainfall forecast for June 14-20 from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Association’s Climate Prediction Center (NOAA/CPC) predicts little to no rainfall will be received across most of the country, aside from isolated pockets along East Golis and West Golis Pastoral livelihood zones in the North and localized pockets in the Juba and Shabelle regions.

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