Somalia

Somalia Seasonal Monitor: June 23, 2017

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FEWS NET publishes a Seasonal Monitor for Somalia every 10 days (dekad) through the end of the current April to June Gu rainy season. The purpose of this document is to provide updated information on the progress of the Gu season to facilitate contingency and response planning. This Somalia Seasonal Monitor is valid through June 30, 2017 and is produced in collaboration with the Food Security and Nutrition Analysis Unit, U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), and the Somali Water and Land Information System (SWALIM).

Localized above-average rainfall in southern Somalia

Between June 11 and 20, localized rainfall was received in southern and northwestern Somalia. Most areas received less than 10 millimeters (mm) of rain, but a few southern areas reported 10-50 mm. Little or no rainfall was reported in northern or central regions of the country (Figure 1). In most northern and central regions where no rainfall was received, this was climatologically average. In some areas, though, the lack of rainfall was 10-25 mm below the short-term mean. In southern areas that received 10-50 mm of rainfall, amounts were 10-50 mm above the shortterm mean (Figure 2).

In the Northwest, localized, light rainfall was received in Northwestern Agropastoral and West Golis Pastoral livelihood zones in Borama of Awdal, and East Golis livelihood zone in Erigabo and Lasqoray of Sanaag. Heavy rainfall was reported in Northwestern Agropastoral livelihood zone in Gabiley of Woqooyi Galbeed. No rainfall was received in any other areas of the Northwest.

In the Northeast, no rainfall was received during the reporting period. Dry conditions are adversely impacting rangeland resources and some livestock in northeastern livelihood zones have started migrating to Hawd Pastoral livelihood zone of Nugaal, where pasture and water is relatively better.

In central regions, following below-average and erratic rainfall between April and the first week of June, no rainfall was reported in Galgaduud or southern Mudug during the reporting period. The exception to this was in Addun Pastoral livelihood zone in Elbur district of Galgaduud, where light rainfall was reported. The long dry spell has negatively affected rangeland and caused many cowpea crops in Elbur, Elder, and Harardhere Districts to wilt.

In the South, average to slightly above-average rainfall was reported in most of Bay, Lower Juba, Middle Juba, and southern Gedo. Hagaa rainfall was also reported in localized areas of Lower Shabelle and Middle Shabelle. These rains are expected to support improvements in rangeland and crop conditions. Rain gauge stations recorded 7 mm of rainfall in Baidoa, 30 mm in Qansahdhere, 46 mm in Dinsor, 43 mm in Janaale (Marka), and 44 mm in Sakow. The rest of the South, including Bakool, Hiiraan, and northern parts of Gedo, received little or no rainfall. There were no flooding events reported between June 11 and 20 and river water levels of both the Shabelle and Juba Rivers remain below average and below risk levels.

The satellite-derived eMODIS Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) shows improvements in vegetation conditions in northern Somalia, while visible deficits remain in central and some southern areas (Figure 3). The seven-day rainfall forecast ending June 30 suggests that little to no rainfall will be received throughout the country in the next seven days. Exceptions to this are large areas of East Golis Pastoral livelihood zone of Bari and Sanaag and a few areas of Lower Juba, where localized rainfall is forecast (Figure 4).