Somalia Seasonal Monitor: December 3, 2017
Light to moderate rainfall in localized areas of southern and central Somalia
In northern Somalia, little to no rainfall was reported between November 21 and 30. In southern and central Somalia, localized areas received light to moderate rainfall of 1-25 millimeters (mm) (Figure 1), according to satellite-derived rainfall estimates by RFE. Rainfall totals ranged between slightly below average in far southern areas to slightly above average in central areas (Figure 2). Rainfall estimates for the same time period were similar according to preliminary Climate Hazards Group InfraRed Precipitation with Station data (CHIRPS). Ground information also indicates light rainfall in central and southern areas, although no rainfall was reported by rain gauge stations in Hiiraan, Lower Shabelle, Middle Shabelle, and Middle Juba, contrary to remote-sensing products. In Lower Juba, no rainfall was reported by remote-sensing products; however, ground information reported moderate rainfall.
In the Northwest, no rainfall was reported in all livelihood zones of Awdal, Woqooyi Galbeed, Togdheer, Sool, and Sanaag between November 21 and 30. The exception to this was Guban Pastoral livelihood zone of Sanaag, in which isolated areas received light to moderate rainfall in late November.
In the Northeast, no rainfall was reported in Bari, making this the second consecutive ten-day period without rainfall. Similarly, little to no rainfall was reported in most livelihood zones of Nugaal and northern Mudug. However, moderate rainfall was reported in Hawd livelihood zone in Galkayo of Mudug. In all northeastern areas except Hawd Pastoral livelihood zone of Nugaal and Mudug, pasture and water availability is well below average. Livestock migration is taking place towards Hawd Pastoral livelihood zone from neighboring livelihood zones and from Lowland Hawd Pastoral livelihood zone of Ethiopia.
In central regions, light to moderate rainfall was reported in most areas of Galgaduud and isolated areas of southern Mudug between November 21 and 30. Light rainfall was received in Dhusamareeb, Adado, Abudwaq and southern Galkayo. In Hobyo District, though, rainfall was moderate to heavy. Rainfall in this district follows significant rainfall deficits experienced in early October. Overall, rainfall in central regions during the reporting period was average or slightly above average in most areas and encouraged the return of livestock that had previously migrated to Togdheer and Nugaal.
In the South, remote sensing products indicate light to moderate rainfall was received in many areas. This is somewhat consistent with ground information, though there are some notable differences. Field information reports moderate rainfall in most areas of Lower Juba, though satellite-derived rainfall estimates suggest little to no rainfall was received in this region. In Hiiraan, Lower Shabelle, Middle Shabelle, and Middle Juba, RFE indicates light rainfall was received, though rain gauge stations reported no rainfall during the reporting period. Ground information is consistent with remote-sensing products in Bay, Bakool, and Gedo, though, where rain gauge stations reported 12 mm of rainfall in Baidoa, 14.5 mm in Dinsor, 4 mm in Qansahdhere, 7 mm in Hudur, and 10 mm in Bardhere. In all areas that did receive rainfall, rains were poorly distributed across space and time. No river flooding was reported along the Juba and Shabelle Rivers during the reporting period. However, farmers in riverine areas of Lower and Middle Juba opened barrages during the reporting period and most riverine areas are now under cultivation.
The satellite-derived eMODIS Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) indicates that vegetation conditions in southern, central, and localized northern areas have improved relative to the previous reporting period (November 11-20). However, significant deficits still exist in large areas of southern and central Somalia, including coastal areas and key crop-producing regions (Figure 3). According to Climate Prediction Center’s seven-day rainfall forecast, no rainfall is forecast for all areas of the country through December 10 (Figure 4).