Somalia Seasonal Monitor: December 13, 2018

Moderate to heavy rainfall in South-Central and climatologically dry conditions in the North

Most southern regions received light to moderate rainfall between December 1 and 10 according to remote sensing imagery, and rainfall was average to above-average in localized areas of Bay, Lower Shabelle, Middle Shabelle, Lower Juba, and Middle Juba regions. According to satellite-derived rainfall estimates (RFE2), most of the South received 10 to 50 millimeters (mm) of rainfall, though rainfall was minimal in large parts of Bakool, Gedo, and Hiiraan regions (Figure 1).

Most northern and central regions of the country received little to no rainfall. The exception to this is coastal and cowpea growing areas, which reported receiving moderate rainfall that was not reflected in remote sensing products. Compared to the short-term average, precipitation was climatologically average for most parts of Somalia, though rainfall received in some southern areas was slightly above average (Figure 2).

In the Northwest, both ground reports and satellite-derived imagery suggest all livelihood zones in Awdal, Woqooyi Galbeed, Togdheer, Sool, and Sanaag regions received little to no rainfall during the December 1-10 reporting period. This reflects climatology for these regions during this time. However, Xeys rainfall, which is typically received during this time in Guban Pastoral livelihood zone of Awdal, was not received during the reporting period.

In the Northeast, there were little to no rainfall in most livelihood zones of Bari, Nugaal, and southern Mudug regions during the reporting period. This was confirmed by RFE2 satellite imagery and is typical for this time of year. Most livelihood zones in these regions experienced extremely below-average October and November rainfall and rangeland resources and livestock conditions are poor.

In central regions, rainfall performance during the December 1-10 period varied across districts of Galgaduud and southern Mudug regions. Little to no rainfall was received in most of Addun and Hawd livelihood zones according to the remote sensing products and field information. Field information suggested that moderate rainfall was received in Coastal Deeh Pastoral and Fishing livelihood zone of Harardhere, Elder, and Hobyo districts, though, as well as in most areas of Central (cowpea) Agropastoral livelihood zone. In the South, rainfall performance varied. Most livelihood zones in Bakool, Gedo, and Hiiraan received little to no rainfall.

The situation was relatively better in most agropastoral livelihood zones of Bay and agropastoral and riverine livelihood zones of Middle and Lower Shabelle, where localized light to moderate rainfall was reported. Average to above-average rainfall was received across all livelihood zones of Lower and Middle Juba during the reporting period. Rain gauge stations recorded 140.6 mm in Dinsor (Bay), 74.7 mm in Qansahdhere (Bay), 0.5mm in Hudur (Bakool), 0mm in Buloburte (Hiiraan), 0 mm in Halgan (Hiiraan), and 70 mm in Sakow (Middle Juba). Shabelle and Juba river water levels remain at normal levels and there is no flooding risk.

The satellite-derived eMODIS Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) indicates further improvement from the previous 10-day reporting period, although localized below-average vegetation conditions persist (Figure 3). According to the Climate Prediction Center’s seven-day rainfall forecast through December 20, most parts of the county should expect little to no rainfall, which is consistent with climatology in mid-December (Figure 4). The exception to this is the southernmost pastoral areas of Lower Juba, where 20-50 mm of rainfall is forecast through December 20.

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