Somalia Rainfall Outlook for Gu 2013 - Issued: 28 February 2013

Situation Report
Originally published


Near normal to below normal rains are expected during Gu 2013 rainy season

The recently issued seasonal climate forecast for the Greater Horn of Africa (Figure 3), indicates that, the 2013 Gu rainy season (March to May) in Somalia there is likely to be near normal to below normal (Zone I in Figure—1), with 45% probability of experiencing normal rains and 35% probability of below normal rains in most parts of the country. For more information about the climate outlook methodology and statement v i s i t : h t t p : / / w w w . i c p a c . n e t / F o r e c a s t s / G H A C O F 3 3 /GHACOF33_statement.pdf.

However, this is a consensus forecast designed for a regional audience that addresses the rainfall totals summed over the three-month period from March to May 2013. SWALIM and other technical partners will keep updating this forecast and monitoring performance of the rains for shorter time periods and will update you throughout the Gu season via regular bulletins.