Somalia Rainfall Outlook - Deyr 2014 Issued: 29th August, 2014

from Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations
Published on 29 Aug 2014

Good Deyr rains are expected in many parts of Somalia

The Deyr rains are usually shorter and less in quanƟty than the Gu rains, however, they are beneficial in supporting agricultural activities and boosting water availability for different uses. Generally the season starts in late September and ends in November. Nevertheless, this varies from place to place across the country with the northern parts receiving the rains much earlier than the southern parts.

The recently issued seasonal climate outlook (forecast) for the Greater Horn of Africa indicates that the Deyr 2014 rainy season in Somalia are expected to be above normal (40% probability of normal rains) with a tendency of 35 % probability of above normal rains in the south and central regions. This also includes part of the Ethiopian highlands which contribute significantly to both Juba and Shabelle river flow inside Somalia. The Northern parts of Somalia are expected to experience below normal rains (40% probability of normal rains) with a tendency of 35% of below normal rains as seen in Figure 1.

This is a consensus climate forecast designed for a regional audience that addresses the rainfall totals summed over the four‐ month period from September to December 2014. The rainfall pattern may vary from place to place with the areas expected to receive high rains experiencing periods of prolonged dry spells and areas expected to receive low rains experiencing heavy storms. SWALIM and other technical partners will keep monitoring performance of the rains for shorter time periods and will update you throughout the Deyr season via regular bulletins.