Somalia

Somalia Rainfall Forecast - Issued: 30 September 2020

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The Deyr 2020 rainy season (Sept/Oct—Dec) continued to spread in the northern parts of the country while it is yet to kick off in the south. Heavy rains were reported in parts of Sool and Sanaag regions in the last 24 hours. Las Caanood recorded a total of 97mm and Taleex received a total of 49mm on 30 September 2020. Qardo station also recorded heavy amounts of 30mm. The southern parts of the country recorded little or no rains in the last few days.

There was reduction of rainfall amounts within the Ethiopian highlands over the last week. This subsequently led to a slight reduction of river flow along the Shabelle River. However, river levels are still very high along the entire channel and flooding continue to be reported in parts of the riverine areas. In Belet Weyne and Bulo Burti, the river levels are still above the high flood risk level to date.

The cumulative rainfall forecast for this week indicates moderate to heavy rains in Sanaag, Sool, Nugaal, Mudug, Galgaduud, Hiraan and Bakool regions. Light to moderate rains are expected in Somaliland and most parts of the southern regions during the forecast period.

The Ethiopian highlands whose soil moisture is already saturated due to heavy rains since July 2020 will see an increase of rainfall amounts this week. This will subsequently lead to a further increase in river levels especially along the Shabelle river.

Given the rainfall forecast and current situation along the two rivers, High Risk of flooding remains along the Shabelle while there is no risk of flooding foreseen along the Juba River. There is a also a high risk of flash floods in the built up low lying areas of central regions, Bakool, Nugaal and Sool.

Users are advised that this is a forecast and at times there may be discrepancies between estimates and actual amounts of rainfall received. Information on the forecast and observed river levels is updated daily and can be found on this link: http:// frrims.faoswalim.org.