Somalia Rainfall Forecast - Issued: 19 November 2019

The last two weeks saw a significant decrease in rainfall activities in Somalia as well as the Ethiopian highlands. Consequently, there was a gradual reduction of river levels along the Juba and Shabelle Rivers. Flood waters also have been receding in Belet Weyne,Bulo Burti and Jalalaqsi in Hiraan Region, this has left the local communities and authorities with concern following damage of properties and livelihoods and possible spread of diseases. Currently, the Shabelle River remains at moderate risk of flooding while the Juba River is at no risk of flooding this week.

The cumulative rainfall forecast for the next three and seven days (Map 1 and 2) is calling for moderate to heavy rains across the country as well as within the Ethiopian highlands. In particular heavy rains of more than 100mm are expected in Bay, Bakool, Middle and Lower Shabelle regions within the southern areas of the country. Similar amounts of rainfall are also foreseen in Awdal, Woqooyi Galbeed, Togdheer and Sool regions in the north.

River levels along the Shabelle remain high and are anticipated to remain so in the coming week given the current situation and foreseen rains. There remains a moderate risk of flooding along the river. Observed river levels along the Juba continued to drop and are currently within the normal at this time of the year.

Mild to moderate levels of flash floods are expected in low lying areas of Bay, Bakool and northern regions in the coming week.

Users are advised that this is a forecast, and at times there may be discrepancies between estimates and actual amounts of rainfall received. Information on the forecast and observed river levels are updated daily on this link: http://frrims.faoswalim.org.