Somalia Rainfall Forecast - Issued: 07 November 2019

FLOODS AND RAINS UPDATE

The Deyr rains continued into the second month of the season with many stations recording light to moderate rains in the southern parts of the country. Parts of central and Puntland areas recorded heavy rains on 2nd and 3rd of November. No rains were reported in Somaliland during the week in review. The good rains received so far have continued to replenish water sources further improving pasture growth and reducing water stress. There has been an improvement in livestock body conditions and milk production as well.

Shabelle River: In Belet Weyne and surrounding areas, river levels reached its maximum carrying capacity on 24 October 2019 and has remained so up to date leading to overflow which left most of the town under water. The flood waters in the town have however started receding back to the river which is causing an increase of river in the downstream stations. Levels at Bulo Burti are currently very high and only 4cm away from the bank full level. Satellite image analysis further indicate inundation of more than 10,000 Hectares of agricultural land in Belet Weyne district.
Unknown amount of crop land has also been inundated in Bulo Burti and Jalalaqsi districts. In Middle Shabelle, floods have damaged more than 65,000 Hectares of cropland at Jowhar and Mahaday Weyne following high river levels and open river breakages. The river levels are expected to remain high along the entire channel of Shabelle as more waters from the Ethiopian highlands are still streaming in. High risk of flooding remains along the Shabelle in the coming week.

Juba River: Along Juba River the levels dropped gradually over the last week. The levels are expected to fluctuate in the coming week with a Moderate risk of flooding towards the end of the week.

In Bay and Bakool regions: There was a reduction of rainfall activities in these regions over the last week which improved the situation in terms of flooding.

Puntland, Somaliland and Central regions: A tropical storm named KYARR dissipated in the Indian Ocean before making a land fall in Somalia as earlier predicted. The much expected heavy rains and associated impacts were therefore not experienced. However, a few places in Puntland and central regions recorded heavy rains on the 2nd and 3rd of November which led to flash floods that destroyed property and death of livestock.

The rainfall forecast for the coming week shows continuing rainfall activities in many parts of Somalia and in the Ethiopian highlands. As a result, the current high river levels, and ongoing riverine flooding, along the Shabelle river are expected to continue in the coming week. Flash floods will also be experienced in low-lying areas of Bakool, Bay and Galgaduud region.

No significant amount of rains area foreseen in Nuugal, Bari and Mudug regions. Hot and dry conditions are expected to persist in the coming week calling a cause for concern due to the prolonged dry period which may lead to depletion of water resources and pasture in the coming weeks.