Attachments
Executive Summary
The Imperative for a Proactive Shift
With frequent droughts and floods compounded by chronic conflict and low development levels,
Somalia is exceedingly vulnerable to climate-related disaster risks. The traditional reactive
humanitarian model is financially unsustainable and morally inadequate.
The 2021-2023 drought alone resulted in an estimated 43,000 excess deaths in 2022, while the
2023-2024 floods resulted in over $176 million in losses. This disastrous track record underscores
the urgent need to shift from crisis management to Anticipatory Action (AA)—acting ahead of a
predicted hazardous event to prevent or reduce its impact. Not only is AA an economic and
moral imperative, but also impact assessments show that every dollar invested can save up to
seven dollars in prevented losses and response costs.
Strategic Momentum and National Risk
The Federal Government of Somalia (FGS) led by the Somali Disaster Management Agency
(SoDMA), is spearheading a coordinated national agenda to integrate AA into national and
regional resilience systems. The shift is supported by tangible success demonstrated by the
World Food Programme (WFP) and partners’ AA triggers for the 2023-2024 floods. Anticipatory
cash transfers led to better food consumption scores and the employment of fewer negative
coping strategies for households in relation to traditional assistance.
The roadmap also emphasizes that anticipatory systems must reflect the differentiated needs
and capacities of women, men, and other vulnerable groups to ensure equitable access and
impact, warranting the scaling up of this modality.
Somalia’s extremely high-risk profile is driven by hazards like floods (66% of all disasters) and
droughts (24%), with 43% of the land susceptible to both. This exposure is reflected in a low
preparedness level (0.325) and high vulnerability (0.611), placing the country in a quadrant of
great urgency for action. Key areas of vulnerability include Health (Cholera/AWD outbreaks),
Food Insecurity (due to reliance on rainfed agriculture), and Infrastructure.
Key Challenges and The Strategic Vision
AA implementation is currently held back by pervasive systemic and institutional gaps;
Funding Gaps: The Somalia Disaster Risk Finance Diagnostic (World Bank, 2025) recognizes
disaster response financing as largely ad hoc and external. The average annual emergency
response estimate of $129 million is costly compared to the FGS’ slow domestic revenue,
necessitating a shift to pre-arranged, risk-layered financing.
Poor Coordination: Activities remain fragmented and “siloed” among humanitarian and
development actors due to the lack of a clear, legal framework.
Capacity: Institutional capacity, which is low, limits planning and scaling up AA.
The roadmap surmounts these bottlenecks through a common vision: “An Anticipatory Action
Approach harmonized and integrated within policies, strategies, and systems, to scale up the
delivery of AA for building the resilience of communities in Somalia.” Guiding principles of
National Ownership, Multi-Hazard Integration, and People-Centered Design inform this vision.