Somalia Monthly Humanitarian Update, September 2024

This report is produced by OCHA Somalia in collaboration with humanitarian partners. It provides information on the humanitarian situation across Somalia in September 2024.

HIGHLIGHTS

• At least 3.6 million people are currently experiencing crisis levels of hunger in Somalia. This number is expected to rise to 4.4 million people between October and December when below average rains are anticipated.

• Thousands of people received humanitarian assistance assisted following flash floods in parts of Somalia due to heavy rains in the Ethiopian highlands which led to a significant increase in Shabelle river levels.

• The Acting Emergency Relief Coordinator, Joyce Msuya, allocated US$3 million from the UN Central Emergency Response Fund (CERF) for urgent response to conflictinduced displacement in Somalia.

• The 2025 Somalia Humanitarian Programme Cycle process is underway. The 2025 Humanitarian Needs and Response Plan (HNRP) will be strictly targeted to reach the most vulnerable population in need of assistance.

• Garowe hospital in Puntland State has reopened after almost four years of extensive reconstruction and renovation. The facility is expected to provide quality lifesaving services to an estimated 1 million people, mainly women and children.

Key Figures

6.9M People who need humanitarian assistance in 2024.

5.2M People targeted for humanitarian assistance in 2024.

US$1.6BN Funding required for the 2024 Humanitarian Response Plan (HNRP).

US$594M Funding received for the HNRP as of 1 October 2024.

4.4M Number of people expected to be food insecure in Oct-Dec.

4.4 million Somalis to face acute food insecurity between October and December

An estimated 3.6 million people in Somalia (19 per cent of the population) are currently experiencing crisis levels of hunger (IPC3 and above), according to latest Integrated Food Security Phase Classification (IPC) analysis by the FAO’s Food Security and Analysis unit on 23 September. This number is expected to rise to 4.4 million between October and December when below average rains are anticipated. Additionally, 1.6 million children under the age of five are at risk of acute malnutrition until July 2025, including 403,000 who are likely to suffer from severe malnutrition. Notably, 66 per cent of the total caseload is concentrated in southern parts of the country. Compared to the same season last year, the expected caseload represents a 14 and 21 per cent increase in Global Acute Malnutrition and Severe Acute Malnutrition.

The IPC findings reflect global weather forecasts which indicate an 80 per cent probability of La Niña conditions, which could lead to drought in Somalia. The forecasts indicate the likelihood of a below-normal deyr rainy season and above-normal temperatures which could cause severe soil moisture loss, poor crop and fodder productivity, and worsen food insecurity in vulnerable communities. Sustained humanitarian assistance, including though anticipatory action, is needed to prevent the worsening of food security and nutrition outcomes across the country.

Key drivers of food insecurity and malnutrition

The IPC findings cited flooding, erratic rainfall, conflict and insecurity, high food prices and diseases as the key drivers of the acute food insecurity and malnutrition in the country. The erratic rains during the gu (May to June) season led to a reduction in crop production in agropastoral livelihoods. While the rains improved the pasture and water availabilities in pastoral livelihoods, localised floods affected populations in riverine and adjacent urban areas in Hiraan, Gedo, Middle Shabelle and Lower Shabelle, displacing part of the population. Conflict and insecurity across regions also led to population displacement and disrupted agricultural activities and market access.

From October to December 2024, a period usually characterized by a spike in disease outbreaks and reduced food access, acute malnutrition is expected to worsen. The expected deterioration in acute malnutrition is largely attributable to the expected scale down of humanitarian and social protection programmes due to limited funding. This will likely lead to reduced health and nutrition services that are crucial to preventing or managing acute malnutrition, especially among the displaced population that rely heavily on humanitarian assistance. Additionally, a seasonal rise in disease prevalence and the potential outbreaks are expected to significantly exacerbate the situation. Access to safe drinking water and sanitation facilities is also expected to decline during the rainy season, heightening the risk of disease.

The IPC report recommends the provision of timely multi-sectoral support to vulnerable communities in areas affected by drought and floods to mitigate the potential adverse effects of climate change and the anticipated La Niña phenomenon, the continuation of lifesaving humanitarian response, social safety nets as well as human capital development programmes to address predictable needs, and investments in early recovery and resilience building, among other interventions.