Somalia Market Update: October 2018 Update (Issued November 20, 2018)

Report
from Food Security and Nutrition Analysis Unit
Published on 20 Nov 2018 View Original

HIGHLIGHTS

Inflation:

SoSh (Somali shilling)-using areas: Compared to one month ago, consumer Price Index (CPI) remained relatively stable in October 2018. CPI declined by 16 percent compared to one year ago (October 2017) annually in South-Central SoSh using regions due to decreases in cereal prices.
SISh (Somaliland shilling)-using areas: CPI remained relatively stable in October 2018 compared to a month ago but declined by 8 percent compared to a year ago due to decline in cereal prices.

Exchange rate:

SoSh-using areas: The exchange rates between SoSh and the United States Dollar (USD) remained relatively stable in most regions of the country in October 2018 compared to last month. Annual comparison indicates that SoSh lost value in most of SoSh using areas with the highest depreciation being recorded in Northeast (21%).

SISh-using areas: The SISh the exchange rate remained relatively stable against the USD compared to both last month and a year ago.

Local cereal (white maize, red sorghum and white sorghum) prices either remained relatively stable or changed at mild rates (by +/- less than 10%) in October 2018 across Somalia. Compared to a year ago, local cereal prices were lower in most regions due to improved harvests this year.

Prices of imported food (rice, sugar, vegetable oil, wheat flour) mostly exhibited relative stability or mild monthly changes in local currency terms in October 2018 compared to last month in most regions. Similarly, compared to one year ago, prices exhibited mild changes (mostly increases) in most central and Southern regions for most food imports. Exceptions are Bakool (El-Barde) and Awdal regions where prices of most food imports increased (20-52%) because of reduced supply due to deterioration of security conditions in Elbarde and damages to road infrustructure caused by cyclone sagar.

Livestock prices for local quality goat and camel mostly exhibited mild monthly changes (less than +/- 10%) in most regions of the country. Compared to a year ago (October 2017), livestock prices were higher due to improved body conditions as a result of better rainfall performance in Gu, 2018 boosted by light to moderate Deyr 2018 rains which increased water availability and pasture. Milk prices either remained relatively stable or changed at mild rates in October 2018 compared to last month. Similarly, compared to last month and a year ago, milk prices (camel and cattle) mostly exhibited mild changes (+/- less than 10%) in most regions of the country.

Labor (unskilled) wages changed mildly (by less than or equal to +/-10%) in October 2018 compared to last month in most of the regions.

Compared to a year ago, labor wages mostly exhibited increases in most regions of the country due to improved agricultural labor opportunities (off-season) as a result of improved rainfall performance this year.

Terms of Trade (ToT) between daily labor wage and cereals either remained relatively stable or changed at mild rates (by +/- 1-2kgs/daily wage) in most regions of the country compared to last month. Annual comparison indicates higher ToT between daily labor and cereals in most regions due to increased labor wages and/or decrease in cereal prices. The ToT between local quality goat and cereals showed mostly mild changes (+/-) in most regions of the country in October 2018. Annual comparison indicates higher ToT between goat and cereal due to increased goat prices and decrease in cereal prices.