Somalia

Somalia Market Data Update: November 2017 Update (Issued December 28, 2017)

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Highlights

Inflation:

SoSh (Somali shilling)-using areas: Consumer Price Index (CPI) remained stable in Northeast but declined mildly (2-4%) in Southern and Central regions in November 2017 due to lower cereal prices during the month. Compared to last year (November 2016), CPI increased (4-17%) due to higher cereal prices this year.

SISh (Somaliland shilling)-using areas: CPI declined mildly (3%) during November 2017 but increased (22%) compared to a year ago (November 2016) due to higher cereal prices this year.

Exchange rate:

SoSh-using areas: The exchange rates between SoSh and the United States Dollar (USD) remained relatively stable or changed at mild rates (+/-) against USD in most regions of the country during November 2017; exception is Sanaag region where SoSh depreciated by 12 percent due to recent printing of local currency. Annual comparison mostly exhibited mixed patterns, SoSh gaining value in Central and southern regions with the highest appreciation (19%) being recorded in Hiraan due to rejection of newly printed notes in favor of better valued pre-war old notes; mild depreciations (7%) were recorded in Northeast regions due to recent printing of local notes in the regions.

SISh-using areas: The SISh remained relatively stable against the USD in November 2017 month-on-month while year-on-year comparison indicates substantial depreciation (33%) due to increased supply of newly printed local currency notes and a decline in the availability of USD due to reduced livestock exports and export revenue.

Local cereal prices declined in most of the Southern and Central regions of the country month-on-month in November 2017. This is attributed to increased supply from the neighboring rural towns resulting from clearing of stocks in anticipation of a relatively favorable outlook for the new Deyr season harvest. Annual comparison indicates higher prices for local grains in most regions of the country attributable to reduced supply due to poor successive harvests except in Juba valley where cereal prices are 19 percent lower than last year due to increased supply and better harvest prospects compared to a year ago.

Prices of imported food (rice, sugar, vegetable oil, wheat flour) mostly exhibited relative stability or mild monthly changes (less than +/-10%) in local currency terms in November 2017 in most regions of the country except in Hiraan where prices of all food imports declined moderately (10-17%). Compared to one year ago, prices exhibited mixed patterns; mild to moderate price declines were recorded for most food imports in most of Southern regions with highest declines (14-30%) being recorded in Hiraan, Bay and Middle Shabelle due to increased supply from humanitarian food distribution and mild appreciation of Somali shillings against USD. Prices for most food imports in Awdal, Central and Northeast regions showed mild changes compared to a year ago while increases for most food imports was noted in Northwest (Woqooyi Galbeed and Togdheer) regions.

Livestock prices for local quality goat and local quality camel exhibited mild changes (less than -/+10%) during November 2017 in most regions of the country; except in Central (Mudug and Galgaduud) where livestock prices increased (15-38%) due to improved livestock body conditions and reduced supply as pastoralist tend to reduce the number of livestock they sell during good seasons. Compared to a year ago (November 2016), most regions exhibited increases in goat and camel prices. Milk prices (camel and cattle) mostly showed declines in most of the regions of the country in November 2017 due to improved supply as a result of increased pasture and water availability. On the other hand, milk prices (camel and cattle) increased from moderate to high levels when compared to last year in most regions of the country due to less milk supply as a result of the drought (less conception in previous seasons).

Labor (unskilled) wages changed mildly (by less than +/-10%) in most regions of the country during November 2017 except in Banadir (Bakara), Hiraan, Mudug and Shabelle regions where wage rates increased moderately (11-16%) due increased agricultural activities in the neighboring rural areas. Compared to a year ago (November 2016), increases in wage rates were recorded in most regions of the country with the exception of Lower Shabelle, and Banadir (Bakara) regions where labor rates declined (13-23%).

Terms of Trade (ToT) between daily labor wage and cereals remained relatively stable or changed mildly (by 1-2kg of cereals/daily labor wage) in most regions of the country during November 2017. Exceptions are Lower Shabelle and Banadir (Mogadishu) where ToT increased (by 3-4kgs of cereals/daily labor wage) due to increase in labor wage rates.
Similarly, annual comparison indicates mild changes in ToT between daily labor and cereals in most regions; exceptions are Awdal, Banadir (Mogadishu) and Middle Juba; the ToT increased (by 4-6kg of cereals/daily labor wage) in Awdal and Middle Juba due to increase in labor wage rates. The ToT between local quality goat and cereals mostly increased in most regions of the country month-on-month due to declines in cereal prices and/or increases in goat prices. Compared to a year ago (November 2016), the ToT between goat and cereals were higher in most regions of the country; exception is in Middle Shabelle (Jowhar) region where the ToT declined compared to a year ago due to higher cereal prices and lower goat prices this year