Somalia

Somalia Market Data Update: March Data 2015 (Issued April 21, 2015)

Format
Situation Report
Source
Posted
Originally published
Origin
View original

Attachments

Highlights

Inflation:

SoSh (Somali shilling)-using areas: In March, the Consumer Price Index (CPI) exhibited mild monthly increases (1-2%) in the South and North, while in Central it decreased by eight percent due to decline in cereal (sorghum) prices. The CPI changed by 1-5 percent compared to March 2014.
SISh (Somaliland shilling)-using areas: The CPI increased mildly (1%) month-on-month and dropped by six percent year-on-year due to declines in cereal prices.

Exchange rate:

SoSh-using areas: The exchange rates between SoSh and the United States Dollar (USD) indicated relative stability or marginal monthly changes (1-5%) in March. The SoSh depreciated compared to a year ago across all areas, most significantly (16%) in Banadir and Lower Shabelle regions.
SISh-using areas: The exchange rates between SISh and the USD increased mildly (1-2%) both month-on-month and year-on year.

Local grain prices remained relatively stable or changed (increased/decreased by 1-7 percent in March in most regions of the country. Moderate (15%) decline in sorghum prices was noted in Bakool, particularly in El-Barde market, due to increased supply in food commodities, which was the only supply route to Hudur market in March. Compared to a year ago, cereal prices have changed by less than 10 percent in Northeast, Shabelle and Lower Juba regions, while they have increased at moderate to significant rates (11-36%) on the main markets of Central, Northwest and other parts of the South. The highest annual increase was noted in Bay region.

Prices of imported food (rice, sugar, vegetable oil, wheat flour) in local currency terms either remained relatively stable or changed mildly in March for most commodities in most parts of the country. Annual price comparison also indicates relative stability or mild (less than 10%) price changes (increase/ decrease) for most food imports throughout the country.

Livestock prices (for all species) showed mild monthly changes (increases/decreases) in most regions of the country in the month of March. However, prices increased moderately for big ruminants in Northwest and small ruminants in the Sorghum Belt regions. The latter is attributable to improved body conditions and high demand from local and external markets. Prices of milk (cattle and camel) remained relatively stable or changed by less than 10 percent in the North and Central regions, while they increased moderately (11-25%) in most parts of the South due to low milk supply in the markets as a result of low seasonal milk production and deteriorated security situation, which affected milk sales. Annual comparison indicates reduced values for most livestock species in most markets in March. Milk prices, more specifically for cattle milk, have exhibited mild (less than 10%) yearly changes in most parts of the country. Notably, annual milk prices increased moderately in Shabelle region due to low milk supply compared to last year.

Labor (unskilled) wages remained relatively stable or changed at relatively mild rates (less than 10%) month-on-month in most regions of the country. Annual comparison indicates mild changes in labor wage rates in most regions of the country. However, significant (29%) annual declines were recorded in Bakool region due to reduced economic/trade activities, while the rates have increased moderately (14-17%) in Northwest and Bay.

Terms of Trade (ToT) between daily labor wage and local cereals as well as between local quality goat and cereals changed at mild to moderate rates month-on-month in most regions of the country. Compared to a year ago, the ToTs have dropped in most regions as a result of increased cereal prices and/or decreased labor wages and goat prices.