Somalia

Somalia Market Data Update: January 2017 Data (Issued February 21, 2017)

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Inflation:
SoSh (Somali shilling)-using areas: Consumer Price Index (CPI) generally exhibits increases (2-11%) in most of the SoSh using areas in December 2016 and January 2017 month-on-month due to increase in red sorghum prices. The CPI increased sharply compared to a year ago essentially for the same reason.

SISh (Somaliland shilling)-using areas: The CPI increased (7%) in December 2016 but mildly (3%) declined in January 2017 month-on-month. Compared to one year ago, CPI increased in both December 2016 (11%) and Jaunary 2017 (8%) due to increase in cereal (red sorghum) and imported items prices over the past 12 months.

Exchange rate: SoSh-using areas: The exchange rates between SoSh and the United States Dollar (USD) indicated relative stability or marginal (1-3%) monthly depreciation of SoSh (Jan 2017 average – 24,817) against USD in most regions. The SoSh shows annual depreciation across SoSh-using areas.

SISh-using areas: The SISh depreciated (5%) against the USD in December 2016 but remained relatively stable in January 2016 month-on-month. Compared to one year ago, the SlSh depreciated against USD in both December 2016 and January 2017.

Local grain prices either remained relatively stable or changed at mild rates in central and northern regions while southern regions recorded mild to moderate increases month-on-month in both December 2016 and January 2017. The increases in local grain prices is attributable to decline in cereal supply as a result of poor post Deyr 2016 cereal harvest. Annual comparison indicates higher prices for local grains in all regions of the country in both December 2016 and January 2017 with the highest increase being recorded in Bakool (72% for December; 65% for January) attributable to reduced supply due to poor Deyr 2016 cereal production.

Prices of imported food (rice, sugar, vegetable oil, wheat flour) mostly exhibited relative stability or mild monthly changes (+/-10%) in local currency terms in December 2016 and January 2017. Year-on-year comparison indicates mild to moderate price increases in most regions of the country for most of the food imports in December 2016 and January 2017.

Livestock prices mostly exhibited declines in most regions of the country month-on-month in both December 2016 and January 2017 due to below average pasture and water availability which has deteriorated livestock body conditions. Milk prices (camel and cattle) generally exhibited monthly increases in most regions of the country reflecting reduced availability. Compared to a year ago, livestock prices were significantly lower across the country in December 2016 and January 2017 attributable to deteriorated livestock body conditions and seasonal reduction in demand. On the other hand, milk prices (camel and cattle) increased from moderate to high levels annually in most regions of the country in December 2016 and January 2017.

Labor (unskilled) wages either remained relatively stable or changed mildly (+/-10%) month-on-month in most of the northern and central regions while labour wages in southern regions generally exhibited declines in December 2016 and January 2017 due to reduced agricultural labor opportunities in the surrounding rural areas as a result of poor Deyr 2016 rainfall performance. Annual comparison exhibited mixed trend patterns; specifically, rates either remained relatively stable or changed mildly (by less than 10%) in northern and central regions; the rates declined moderately (11-22%) in southern regions year-on-year as a result of reduced agricultural activities due to poor Deyr 2016 harvest.

Terms of Trade (ToT) between daily labor wage and local cereals either remained stable month-on-month or declined (by 1-5kg of cereals/daily labor wage) in most parts of the country with largest decline (5kg of cereal/daily labor wage) being recorded in Mogadishu (Bakara market) in December 2016 and January 2017. The monthly declines in ToT between daily labor wage and local cereals can be attributed to increase in cereal prices and/or decrease in labor wage rates. Similarly, ToT between local quality goat and cereals declined in most regions of the country month-on-month as a result of increase in cereal prices and/or decline in local quality goat prices. Annual comparison indicates the ToTs are lower across the country due to declines in labor wage rates and goat prices and/or increase in local grain prices compared to a year ago (Dec 2015/Jan 2016).