Somalia Market Data Update February 2013

Situation Report
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Inflation: Since the beginning of the year, Consumer Price Index (CPI) declined slightly in the South, accelerated marginally in the Central and remained relatively stable in the North. Annual inflation reduced in South-Central but increased somewhat in the Northern zones. Compared to the base period (March 2007), the minimum cost of living is elevated both in Somali Shilling (SoSh) as well as Somaliland Shilling (SlSh) areas.
Exchange rate: The SoSh sustained upward trend on the US Dollar (USD) particularly in the southern markets while the SlSh remained relatively stable for the second month in a row this year. Compared to the same month a year ago, SlSh has depreciated against the USD, while the SoSh gained value. The annual appreciation of the SoSh is a reflection of increased trade flows from seaports, positive economic revitalization signals in Mogadishu, relative stability in most regions, limited supply of SoSh notes and continued dollar inflows through humanitarian interventions, on-going foreign and domestic capital investments. The weakened SlSh is due to increased supply and circulation of new higher denomination notes.
Local grain prices were largely stable in most markets but declined notably in the crop producing Bay and Lower Shabelle Regions, mainly on the backdrop of good Deyr 2012/13 seasonal harvest, enhanced trade flows, humanitarian food supply and reduced prices of imported food. Overall, cereal prices remained at low levels, well below those of the same period last year.