Somalia

Somalia Market Data Update: Dec 2015-Jan2016 Data (Issued February 19, 2016)

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Situation Report
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Highlights

Inflation:

SoSh (Somali shilling)-using areas: Consumer Price Index (CPI) changed at mild rates (2-4%) in December 2015 and January 2016. Compared to a year ago (December 2014 & January 2015), the CPI remained relatively stable (1-2%) in Northeast while in Central and Southern SoSh-using areas CPI decline (2-8%) was recorded.
SISh (Somaliland shilling)-using areas: The CPI remained relatively stable month-on-month in December 2015 and January 2016. The CPI increased by 6 and 7 percent in December 2015 and January 2016 respectively compared to a year ago (December 2014 & January 2015).

Exchange rate:

SoSh-using areas: The exchange rates between SoSh and the United States Dollar (USD) indicated stability or marginal monthly changes (1-4%) in December 2015 and January 2016. The SoSh depreciated compared to a year ago across all areas in December 2015 and January 2016.
SISh-using areas: The SISh remained relatively stable against the USD in December 2015 but declined by 11 percent in January 2016 month-on-month. Annual comparison indicates depreciation in SISh by 11 percent in December 2015 and appreciation of 2 percent in January 2016.

Local grain prices declined from mild (3%) to moderate (18%) levels in December 2015 and January 2016 in most regions of the country due to increased cereal availability in the market as a result of post Deyr harvest.
Annual comparison indicated local grain price declines in most parts of the country. However, notably, both December 2015 and January 2016 yearly cereal prices (Red sorghum) increased (4-9%) in Gedo.

Prices of imported food (rice, sugar, vegetable oil, wheat flour) mostly exhibited relative stability or mild monthly changes (increases/decreases) in local currency terms in both December 2015 and January 2016 across the country. Annual price comparison indicated relative stability or decreases in prices for most of the imported food commodities with the highest decrease being recorded in Bakool (34%) in December 2015 and January 2016 compared to one year ago.

Livestock prices (for all species) changed at mild rates (less than 10%) month-on-month in both December 2015 and January 2016 in most regions of the country. However, camel prices increased by 23 percent in December 2015 in Northwest and 31 percent in January 2016 in Lower Shabelle. Milk prices (camel and cattle) changed at mild rates (less than 10%) month-on-month in most regions of the country in both December 2015 and January 2016. Annual comparison exhibited mixed trends; specifically, camel prices in most parts of country were higher compared to one year ago in both December 2015 and January 2016; conversely, yearly prices of local quality cattle and local quality goats indicated either mild changes or lower prices in most regions of the country; notably, in Bay region, both small (goat) and big (camel and cattle) ruminants prices declined compared to one year ago. Compared to a year ago milk prices (camel and cattle) either remained relatively stable or declined in most parts of country with the exception of Northern and Middle Juba regions where milk prices increased moderately (13-33%) in December 2015; while in January 2016,milk prices were higher in most regions compared to one year ago.

Labor (unskilled) wages either remained relatively stable or declined in the month of December 2015 in most regions of the country apart from Bakool where labor wage increased by 8 percent; while in the month of January 2016 month-on-month labor wages indicated mild to moderate increases in most parts of the country due to increased agricultural activities e.g. harvesting. Annual comparison indicates mild changes or moderate increases in wage rates in most regions of the country in both December 2015 and January 2016 with the highest increase (65-69%) being recorded in Bakool (Hudur and El-berde).

Terms of Trade (ToT) between daily labor wage and local cereals either remained stable or changed at mild rates (1-3kg/daily labor wage) month-on-month in both December 2015 and January 2016 in most parts of the country with exception of Banadir (Mogadishu Bakara) where the ToT increased by 5Kg/daily wage. The ToT between local quality goat and cereals changed at mild rates in most regions of the country. Annual comparison indicated increases in both ToT between daily labor wage and local cereals and ToT between local quality goat and cereals in most regions of the country.