Below-average Deyr harvest remains likely, despite heavy rainfall in early November
- Widespread Crisis (IPC Phase 3) and Emergency (IPC Phase 4) acute food insecurity persist in most areas of Somalia, though humanitarian assistance is preventing more extreme outcomes. During field assessments conducted in November, households reported relying on small amounts of milk, purchasing food on credit, and sharing food assistance. Through May, it is possible some households who lack access to assistance will be in Catastrophe (IPC Phase 5) in livelihood zones of greatest concern. In a worst-case scenario of very poor Deyr rainfall through December and a protracted absence of assistance, Famine (IPC Phase 5) is likely. Large-scale assistance is needed throughout 2018 to prevent the loss of lives and collapse of livelihoods.
- In southern Somalia, rainfall in early November was well above average and supported crop recovery and development in most areas. However, total Deyr production is still estimated at 60-70 percent of average due to early season crop losses and expected near complete cropping failure in Hiraan and Southern Rainfed Agropastoral livelihood zone of Lower Shabelle. Production estimates are based on an assumption of average rainfall in December, but in the event no rainfall is received in December, greater crop losses are likely. Production in riverine areas is expected to be near average, although the harvest will occur slightly later than normal in riverine areas of Lower and Middle Juba.
- In northern and central pastoral areas, rainfall in October and November was 30-60 percent below average. Livestock are atypically migrating to Hawd Pastoral livelihood zone, where heavy rainfall in early November improved pasture and water availability. Livestock body conditions and reproduction have improved somewhat, though livestock conditions are still expected to be poorer than normal during the January to March Jilaal season, as pasture and water resources in many areas of the country will likely deteriorate faster than normal.
- The November/December Gu/Karan harvest is ongoing in Northwestern Agropastoral livelihood zone of Awdal and Woqooyi Galbeed and is estimated at 16,000 MT, only 34 percent of the five-year average. Poor production is a result of below-average and poorly distributed April to July Gu rainfall and June to September Karan rainfall. Despite this, the harvest is improving food access in the short-term and poor households are expected to be Stressed (IPC Phase 2) through January 2018. Food security is expected to deteriorate to Crisis (IPC Phase 3) in February after households exhaust harvests.